With four weeks life to the primary, Barack Obama is 10 points atop Hillary Clinton, exactly where Obama was two months ago, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for ABC11 Eyewitness News.
SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs show remarkable stability within the sub-populations. Among men, over the past 2 months, Obama led by 18, by 13, and today by 15 points. Among women, Obama led by 2, by 3, and today by 6 points.
Among whites, Clinton led by 19, by 17, and today by 22 points. Among blacks, Obama led by 65, by 61, and today by 75 points. Obama has gained ground in Raleigh, where he led by 8 points last month and by 18 points today. The contest remains effectively tied in Charlotte, with Clinton now sea-sawing past Obama, but still within sampling error.
The race for governor: The republican outlook
If a Republican Primary for governor of North Carolina were held today, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory wins with 38% of the vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll. State Senator Fred Smith is second with 19%, businessman Bill Graham and former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr tie for third. McCrory is up 12 points from an identical poll taken four weeks ago, buoyed by a tripling of his support in the Raleigh and Greensboro areas, where McCrory was in last place with 9% in SurveyUSA's most recent tracking poll; today, McCrory finishes 1st in that region, with 29% of the vote.
The race for governor: The democratic outlook
With four weeks left to the May Primary, State Treasurer Richard Moore and Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue tie, 40% each, according to our SurveyUSA poll. The contest has been fundamentally altered in the past month, as Moore overcame a 16-point deficit. Both whites and blacks, young and old have rallied to Moore, who trailed by 20 points in February. In Charlotte, Moore led by 3 last month, leads by 21 this month. In Raleigh, Moore was down 21 last month, now down 7. On the Coast, Moore had trailed by 27, now trails by 12.
17% Other / Undecided
The Senate race
In a Democratic Primary in NC for United States Senator, for the right to oppose incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in November, Kay Hagan and Jim Neal remain effectively tied, as they have been for 60 days. Neither candidate has any momentum, now four weeks to the primary. Today, the contest stands: 21% Hagan, 20% Neal, with Duskin Lassiter, Howard Staley, and Marcus Williams far back. 45% of the people polled say they're undecided, or would vote for some candidate that was not named.
45% Other / Undecided