Hottest Temps of the Year

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A sizzler today and another expected tomorrow with high temperatures approaching the century mark and feels like temps in the 105-107 range. Latest GOES16 data is showing some development to the cu field in east-central NC and radar is showing a few specks developing.For that reason a mention of a stray shower or thundershower into the early evening. Then it will be mostly clear tonight with sunshine and patches of clouds tomorrow. Models are for the first time trying to hint at the chance for a stray late-day or evening thunderstorm tomorrow. The sounding is ever so subtle more unstable tomorrow than today as heights come down just a bit. Seeing what is happening today there might be a 10-20% chance mention type thing late tomorrow and tomorrow

Heights come down more on Sunday and while its still hot and humid there will be a much better chance for more in the way of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms scattered about. Both days of the weekend will have activity in the mountains but here too Sunday is more active than tomorrow. On Monday a weak front tries to come down from the north. This should bring a good chance for a thunderstorm or two to the area and the potential for a heavy thunderstorm. Models, however, vary in that likelihood with the GFS lacking precipitation compared to the European. We have opted to ride the Euro train. The weak front is still in the area Tuesday and a focal point for another shower and thunderstorm but at least temperatures will be back to more typical summer heat levels than we are seeing now.

The past couple of days models dried it out for Wednesday and Thursday. Not so much now. Both longer range models have a weak front stalled in the area and bring at least the chance for a shower and thunderstorm Wednesday then maybe bring in some drying aloft Thursday.

Have a great weekend and stay cool!

Steve Stewart

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