My phone is showing snow. Is that true?!

Wind-blown snow nearly obscures a city limits sign in Raleigh (AP Photo/Allen G. Breed)

Is your weather app showing snowflake for Monday?

If it does, it's detecting a cold trend in the long-range models.

Rain arrives Sunday and as it wraps in cold air Monday morning, it will be miserable.

"But will it snow, Big Weather!?" you might be asking.

At the moment, I wouldn't be counting on any snow days.

Let's take a quick look at two of our most consistent long-range weather models. First the ECMWF, or 'Euro' (short for European) model.

It is showing some accumulations for Virginia, and even brings, in a bit of snow accumulation in Person County. But ground temps are well above freezing.

Here's a look across NC:

So even if the snow flies up North, it won't accumulate on the ground at this point.

Let's look at the American Model.

It is a little more aggressive at this point bring a half inch of snow to Roxboro.

So which one is right? Neither of them, nor is your phone. Here's why ...

It's TOO FAR OUT!!! The models start with all kinds of different pieces of information.

If just one of those pieces is wrong, it gets amplified by the time we go clear out on Monday morning.

Chances are your phone app uses just one model and it's doing the same thing. And this is why it's good to have a meteorologist looking at the model(s).

We can look at several different models, and use our experience forecasting, to determine if something is headed our way. And by looking at several factors (models, surface analysis, upper-level winds, etc.), we can paint a broader picture of what might be headed our way.

Bottom line: Will we see snow Monday morning?

Maybe, if we get cold enough we could see some flakes fly. How much snow will we see? Well, you won't hear it from this guy yet ... I try to be responsible (at least with my snow forecasting).

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