Clinton, Obama gap closes; Perdue pulls away

RALEIGH In the last four polls, over the past two months, Obama has led by 10, 8, 10, and 9 points. Based on polling results, white voters are key. Since January, Clinton had led among Carolina whites by 14, 19, 17, 22 and 23 points. Now by 31 points. In the Triangle, Clinton is up 9 points, week-on-week; Obama is down 3; a net swing of 12 points to Clinton.

Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton has overtaken Obama for the first time in 2008, though the difference is small and within the sub-group's margin of sampling error. The two tie among moderates. Obama leads slightly among liberals. Clinton leads slightly among conservatives.

  • 44% Clinton
  • 49% Obama
  • 4% Other
  • 3% Undecided

Perdue consolidates support

With one week to the May Primary, Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue wins with 45% of the vote, according to our SurveyUSA poll. State Treasurer Richard Moore takes 36%. Three weeks ago, the two were tied at 40%; one week ago, Perdue led by 4.

With seven days left, 8% of voters remain undecided or say they will vote for another candidate.

Perdue's lead comes entirely from women. Among men, the contest is tied. Among women, she leads by 17 points. Among voters age 18 to 49, Moore led by 3, trailed by 1, and now trails by 11. Among voters age 50+, Perdue has led by 3, 8, and now by 7. Among whites, Moore had led by 3, by 4, and now trails by 4. Among blacks, Perdue has led by 12, 16, and now leads by 25 points.

In Raleigh, Perdue is ahead by 8. In southern and coastal Carolina, she is ahead by 10. In Charlotte, the contest is volatile and the lead has seesawed back to Perdue.

  • 36% Moore
  • 45% Perdue
  • 2% Nielsen
  • 16% Other / Undecided

Smith now catches McCrory: Contest could go either way

In a Republican Primary for Governor state Senator Fred Smith has momentum, and effectively catches Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who has led since entering the race in January, according to our SurveyUSA poll.

With one week to the primary, it's McCrory 36%, Smith 32%, within the survey's 4.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. 20% of likely voters are undecided, and whom they chose, in the final few days of the campaign, will determine the winner. Smith's rise began in February. In the 5 tracking polls SurveyUSA has released since then, Smith has polled at 16%, 18%, 19%, 24% and today 32%. Among women, McCrory last week led by 19; now, McCrory leads by 1.

Among conservatives, who make-up two-thirds of likely voters, McCrory last week led by 5; now, Smith leads by 5, a 10 point swing to Smith. McCrory continues to dominate among moderates. In Charlotte -- where McCrory is mayor -- and in the western portion of the state, McCrory holds his 2:1 lead over Smith.

In Raleigh and Greensboro, Smith now leads by 4, the first time he has led in that region since March. In southern and coastal North Carolina, where Smith has led since January and where McCrory has never led, Smith now leads by nearly 4:1.

  • 5% Graham
  • 7% Orr
  • 36% McCrory
  • 32% Smith
  • 20% Undecided

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