Will we see a White Christmas, or will it be a Silent Night?

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This is part of an ongoing web article where we look at the models and how they change over the course of 10 days. We started last Thursday at 10 days out from Christmas. We look at 3 weather models to see if they are in agreement and how they change over the course of the 10 days. Not much change since our update yesterday. We are seeing a trend though...

Now, let's look at how the models have changed since Thursday. First the American Model, the GFS (Global Forecast System).

Weather outlook Thursday

Weather outlook Tuesday (Credit: Global Forecast System)



The one consistent thing we've seen with this model is to push the high a little further to the east every day. If the high were to stay over us, that would blue skies and sunshine. As it heads east, we get more return flow. That's where warm air is shoved to the north and brings moisture with it. What are we looking at? The high has gone so far to the east, that the warmth and moisture it's pulling north starts to interact with the next system, and the green means some rain may be headed in. Now, on to the European model...

Weather outlook Thursday

Weather outlook Tuesday (Credit: European model)



This 'Euro' pic doesn't show precipitation, but it does show us where the High pressure is centered. It's also further to the east, even since yesterday, indicating warmer temps, and higher humidity. It also continues to show a strong storm out. We're in for some warmer air and more humidity. We'll move on to the Canadian model...

Weather outlook Thursday

Weather outlook Tuesday (Credit: Canadian model)



This model has changed in 24 hours. It now shows the high way east, and a secondary high forming to the north. That would actually clear us out and, unlike the other two models, push us cooler. It could be a one day hiccup, or the start of something new. We'll have to wait until tomorrow.

So, sunshine or rain? Which one do we pick today?

4 days out, we're seeing the warming trend in two of the three models that has been consistent over the past couple of days. I believe that will continue for now so I would go above average temps, more humid, and watch for shower chances developing in the next couple of model runs. Rain on Christmas, at this point, maybe...

Check back tomorrow and we'll see holds and if it will be warmer on Sunday.
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