Triangle experts weigh in on Mideast attacks, potential ceasefire

RALEIGH. N.C. (WTVD) -- Local experts are breaking down what President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran -- which Iranian officials denied Monday night -- means for the Middle East and the U.S. long term.

Word of that ceasefire from Trump came just hours after attempted missile attacks from Iran on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar, attacks which military officials say were successfully defended.

Triangle scholars agreed that Iran is in a vulnerable position, but that a long-term solution may still be a long way off.

"Iran's in a terrible situation. Their air is owned by Israelis. There's no defense," said Mac McCorkle, Professor of the Practice at Duke's Sanford School of Public Policy.

McCorkle and other experts agreed that Iran's attempts to hit U.S. bases on Monday were mostly demonstrative.

"It looks like this attack of missiles was basically for domestic consumption in Iran," McCorkle said. They're going to be able to say, we fired as many missiles back at the United States as the United States fired at us."

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Monday's missile attacks spread concern about a more prolonged conflict involving the United States. Just hours later, President Trump took to Truth Social to announce that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran had been reached. As of Monday evening on the East Coast, hostilities between the two countries had not stopped, but international political expert Navin Bapat said he expects that ceasefire to be agreed upon given Iran's lack of allies and military power.

"I think they likely would want to de-escalate given the how their their sort of military situation has been degraded," he said.

Bapat, the incoming Political Science Chair at UNC, has studied the Middle East and fallout from 9/11 and believes there's no good solution for Iran.

"Because they lost so much of their Air Force and because there was no one coming to help them and because the United States was now involved they were facing really, really long odds," he said.

Bapat said he's confident a ceasefire will be reached, but he's less certain of a long term solution. That's due, in his opinion, to the lack of trust between Iran's government and the Trump administration after Trump pulled out of the Obama-brokered 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

"It's going to be difficult for them to actually sign a deal in good faith and believe that at any one moment in time, the Trump administration might not change their mind again," he said.