Scattered Storms Today

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- We continue to have a front draped across the mid-Atlantic; this will continue to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity for at least the next couple of days. The combination of the stalled boundary and onshore winds on the south side of a large surface high over eastern Canada has caused moisture to pool along the Eastern Seaboard from New Jersey down into the Southeast. As a result, any showers and thunderstorms that fire up are able to produce some hefty downpours. In addition, the steering flow over the region has been light, so flash flooding can quickly become an issue.

We are in a bit of a lull in precipitation now, with the loss of daytime heating and the fact that we've got a bit of ridging going on behind a disturbance that came through yesterday. However, with a low along the coast, we should start seeing convection firing up fairly in the daylight hours. This low will slowly move away to the northeast today, but heights will come down as it deepens a bit through the day, helping to enhance the convection once again. The threat for any hail or damaging wind remains low, with fairly mild air aloft and relatively little wind.

The models still disagree this morning on the departure of the upper-level trough over the region. The American continues to carry the trough axis east of us by the end of the day, with drier air moving into the region on the northwest flow behind it. It then has a little max arriving for Monday, with the chance of convection returning.

Meanwhile, the European still holds the trough back a bit with a weak max coming through the flow, but then pushes the trough to the east for Monday when it has us dry. Given this disagreement, we'll continue to carry both days with a minimal chance for rainfall. Somewhere in this window though, we should see at least a little downturn in dew points, and so there will be a break from the very high humidity we've had lately.

Another front will come in from the northwest early next week and a little moisture will try to return out ahead of that to trigger a shower or thunderstorm again. However, it won't be nearly as much moisture to work with as what we have in place right now. It is a tricky call right now as to what happens with that front, though it seems like it will get hung up along the coast and there is differing opinions on whether a wave of low pressure develops and rides along that front. Should that happen, the early to middle portion of next week could be quite active and wet as well. Today's long-range models say that the most likely uptick in activity will start Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Josephine formed yesterday afternoon. It will turn north as it approaches the Leeward Islands. It's will weaken and even possibly fizzle out early next week thanks to dry air it runs into and wind shear. Not a threat to us here in NC, other than the waves will be up late weekend.

There is also a system off the NC coast that could develop into a tropical cyclone.

Even if it does form, it moves away and will not affect us here.

Have a great weekend!
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