Rain Chances Increase Today

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Most of the storm activity remained out of the Triangle yesterday and so far overnight, storms west of us have caused heavy rainfall and the anticipated flash flooding concerns. Estimates are that about 3 inches of rain have fallen over parts of Davidson and Randolph counties, and the rain is still falling. Lack of steering flow has meant that storms are very slow-moving, which is adding to the problem. As we begin to see some storm activity here today, that concern will expand into our area.

These storms are being caused by a cool front that has pushed southward into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina; this will linger through the rest of the week and into the weekend. In addition, the models are anticipating a weak low forming over central or eastern North Carolina. This setup will help to keep the storm activity going today and tomorrow, with more coverage of storms for the Triangle than we saw yesterday. The concern for heavy rainfall and slow-moving storms will persist, and flash flooding will be a concern anywhere these storms set up as moisture remains plentiful.

An upper-level trough will move into and through the Carolinas this weekend. While this will mean a continuation of the shower and thunderstorm activity, we may see a bit more of a steering flow, so the threat of flooding will begin to diminish. The models agree that moisture levels remain high through at least Saturday, so we continue to have the potential of flooding to start the weekend. From there, the models are still diverging. The GFS pushes a stronger low through Virginia Saturday night into into Sunday that pushes the front eastward. This brings in drier air and lowers the precipitation threat for the Triangle. Instead, the focus would be closer to the coast.
However, the European is a little slower and not as strong with that feature, and never clears the moisture out of the area. For now, we'll play Saturday as the wetter day, and the day more likely to have heavy rainfall. We'll back off on the coverage and intensity of storms for Sunday.

As the upper-level trough holds on over the East into the start of next week, the models are bringing another front into the Appalachians Monday. With somewhat drier air over the region ahead of that, we could have a drier day Monday.

However, the front will make it into the vicinity of the Triangle by Tuesday and then linger through the middle of the week. This should bring back more of a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday, which will linger through much of the end of next week.

Have a great Thursday!

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