We are in a bit of a lull in precipitation now, with the loss of daytime heating and the fact that we've got a bit of ridging going on behind a disturbance that came through yesterday. However, with a low along the coast, we should start seeing convection firing up fairly in the daylight hours. This low will slowly move away to the northeast today, but heights will come down as it deepens a bit through the day, helping to enhance the convection once again. The threat for any hail or damaging wind remains low, with fairly mild air aloft and relatively little wind.
The models still disagree this morning on the departure of the upper-level trough over the region. The American continues to carry the trough axis east of us by the end of the day, with drier air moving into the region on the northwest flow behind it. It then has a little max arriving for Monday, with the chance of convection returning.
Meanwhile, the European still holds the trough back a bit with a weak max coming through the flow, but then pushes the trough to the east for Monday when it has us dry. Given this disagreement, we'll continue to carry both days with a minimal chance for rainfall. Somewhere in this window though, we should see at least a little downturn in dew points, and so there will be a break from the very high humidity we've had lately.
Another front will come in from the northwest early next week and a little moisture will try to return out ahead of that to trigger a shower or thunderstorm again. However, it won't be nearly as much moisture to work with as what we have in place right now. It is a tricky call right now as to what happens with that front, though it seems like it will get hung up along the coast and there is differing opinions on whether a wave of low pressure develops and rides along that front. Should that happen, the early to middle portion of next week could be quite active and wet as well. Today's long-range models say that the most likely uptick in activity will start Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Josephine formed yesterday afternoon. It will turn north as it approaches the Leeward Islands. It's will weaken and even possibly fizzle out early next week thanks to dry air it runs into and wind shear. Not a threat to us here in NC, other than the waves will be up late weekend.
There is also a system off the NC coast that could develop into a tropical cyclone.
There is an area of low pressure sitting off our coast now with a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. If named, it would be #Kyle The best news for us is it moves out to sea and dies out. #Tropics pic.twitter.com/80MwPCB7w2— 𝘿𝙤𝙣 𝙎𝙘𝙝𝙬𝙚𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙠𝙚𝙧 (@BigweatherABC11) August 14, 2020
Even if it does form, it moves away and will not affect us here.
Have a great weekend!