Rain Returns Tomorrow

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- It's yet another quiet and rather pleasant day across the Triangle today as surface high pressure remains in control. A cooler and drier northeasterly flow continues to spread southwestward across the state.

Meanwhile, the stalled frontal boundary offshore continues to maintain the focus for deep convection firing. This promoted a gradual fall in surface pressures and an embedded low-level circulation may be developing along this frontal boundary. Due to the weak southwesterly flow aloft that this circulation is embedded in, it will continue off to the north and does not impact NC, but can bring some higher higher surf and rip currents along the coast. Regardless, it will be a pleasant evening, but clouds will gradually increase in coverage as the flow turns more southeasterly and we see an increase in moisture advection.

This will also aid in an increase in dewpoints tomorrow, yielding a more uncomfortable day with higher humidity across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon, but will likely be very spotty. This will be the result in the increase in moisture, and differential heating across the state.

The pattern will not change very much as we head into the weekend.

A strong western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will continue to promote a steady influx of moisture into the southeastern U.S. Dewpoints will generally remain in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Triangle, so it will feel less comfortable than what we have seen. Typical late day shower and thunderstorm activity can be seen each afternoon across the region, but will likely be very spotty. The primary threat with these storms will be very heavy downpours since steering currents will be very weak. There can be some brief downburst winds with any collapsing updrafts, but overall, flooding will be the biggest concern. In addition to the rising dewpoints, temperatures will also gradually rise through the
weekend and early next week.

We will be back to around normal by Sunday and Monday, with temperatures nearing the 90-degree mark.

The persistent subtropical ridge will remain nearly stagnant across the eastern U.S. and maintain the rather warm regime across the Eastern Seaboard. Models continue to show a chance of late day storms firing. Chances decrease early next week as there will be stronger large-scale subsidence with the mid-upper level high overhead. Still, "pulse" shower and thunderstorm activity cannot be entirely ruled out.

Have a great evening!

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