RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- The upper-level trough that steered Isaias quickly away from the Triangle yesterday is now moving into the East. The axis will be over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys today through tomorrow night, then shift east of the Appalachians Friday. At the same time, a weak cool front will slowly push toward us from the west today, then stall out nearby tonight. Over the next several days, we'll see pieces of energy moving through the trough and heading northeastward in the flow toward the Triangle. This will give us persistent chances for precipitation, especially with plenty of moisture still in place over the area.
The arrival of the front later today will be enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two this afternoon and evening, and we could still see a lingering shower later tonight with the front stalled nearby.
The front will linger through tomorrow, and we could end up with a better chance for a couple of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance would still be in the afternoon and evening, helped out by daytime heating. The trough begins to weaken and lift northward Friday as it moves eastward, but there will still be enough of a weakness in place along with the stalled-out frontal boundary to lead to midday and afternoon convection firing up. Afternoon temperatures today through Friday will be seasonable for this time of the year, with readings in the upper 80s, close to 90.
As the trough lifts out and weakens, it will be replaced by ridging and gradually rising heights for the weekend. This will limit the shower and thunderstorm activity, though given the heat and humidity in place and lack of a very strong cap, an afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out both Saturday and Sunday. Best chance for storms on these days will be along sea-breeze boundaries to the east of the Triangle and over the mountains to the west. Temperatures may rebound a little back into the low 90s.
An upper-level high will be pushing into the East early next week. This will keep the precipitation chances low through Wednesday, though we can't rule out typical afternoon/evening convection each day.
Have a great Hump Day!
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