RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- The storm labeled Invest 98L has still not been named, but there is a high chance that it will become a tropical depression or storm later today. The center of the storm is currently located some 50 miles east-northeast of Wilmington, and with the storm remaining over warm water as it moves northward today, there will likely be more organization of this system.
The heavy rain with the system now is mainly offshore, but there are some showers making it back to the Outer Banks. With the expected track right up through Pamlico Sound, there will be some interaction with land which could inhibit development some despite the other helpful factors remaining high.
The heaviest rains should remain along and east of the track of the low, though we do anticipate midday and afternoon storms back as far as the Triangle today with very low heights due to the proximity of the storm. While there can be downpours with any showers and thunderstorms due to the very juicy air mass, flash flooding is most likely to occur east of the Triangle, closer to the path of the storm.
Wind will be a factor along the coast, with gusts to around 35 mph at times, but here in the Triangle, wind shouldn't be an issue.
As the surface low continues to crawl northward tonight, precipitation will lift out of the area very early and clouds will break due to subsidence behind the storm. As the low continues northward tomorrow just off the Virginia coast, we expect to remain between features here in the Triangle, with the storm to the northeast and a weak boundary to our west. This should give us a dry, but hot day with temperatures topping out several degrees above 90.
The boundary will come eastward with an upper level trough that is currently crossing the northern Plains, but is expected to dig deeper over the entire East Coast over the weekend. That boundary should give us an afternoon thunderstorm or two Saturday, but Sunday looks to be rain free behind it. We will still mention the chance of a thunderstorm, mainly east, as the boundary may get hung up close to the coast.
The trough lingers early next week with another piece of energy swinging through it Monday. This will increase our precipitation chance to start the week.
However, by the end of Tuesday, the trough is already beginning to lift out of the area, so our chance for any rainfall would be limited to pop up convection due to daytime heating. A strong ridge is expected to build into the East toward the middle of next week; this could give us dry, but hot weather Wednesday before another disturbance could bring a higher storm chance Thursday.
Have a good day!
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