NEAR-RECORD HIGHS: Good morning! The heat wave is holding strong. High pressure over the region will strengthen today. This hotter air, dry ground, and June sun will lead to highs around 100 -approaching the record of 102 at RDU from 1952.
UNUSUAL HEAT: While numerous days of 90-degree temps aren't unusual for June, 100 is a bit odd. For context, the historical average for the number of days at or above 100 in June is 0 and the max number of days is 4.
A FEW STORMS THURSDAY: A cold front will move in from the northwest later tonight and into tomorrow morning. A stray storm will be possible today. The best chance for organized thunderstorms Thursday will be *best* south and east of Raleigh and may bring some gusty winds and flooding downpours. There is a Level 1 severe risk along I-95.
This cold front should put an end to our 6-day stretch of 95-degree-plus weather (heat wave). But, it'll still be hot and humid with highs in the low 90s and feels-like temps near 100.
By the end of the week and through the weekend, temperatures quickly push back into the mid-90s.
BETTER RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY: On Sunday, a new system and associated cold front sweep through the area late in the afternoon and that will provide our next opportunity for some rain. Otherwise, expect high temperatures once again in the mid-90s and a blend of clouds.
MORE HEAT NEXT WEEK: Early next week we settle back into a pattern more typical for this time of the year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Temps will climb back into the mid/upper 90s July 3 and July 4 with a chance for a spotty afternoon thunderstorm.
WE NEED RAIN: We could use more substantial rain, as it has been quite a dry June. Much of North Carolina is now in a minor drought. We've only gotten 2.26" out of our historical average of 3.89" and nearly all that fell during the first week of June.
TROPICS:
1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A tropical wave moving into the central Caribbean Sea is producing limited shower activity as it moves quickly westward at around 25 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development late this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible late this week into early next week while it moves generally
westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Have a good day!
Kweilyn