Colorado State University (CSU) releases a hurricane season prediction each year, along with other agencies such as NOAA. CSU is predicting above-normal activity for the upcoming hurricane season.
We're currently in a La Niña pattern, but forecasted to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months. There is still uncertainty as to what phase of ENSO we will be in this summer and fall.
An El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is a natural climate pattern that influences global weather, marked by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Different ENSO patterns can influence the placement of the jet stream. A jet stream that digs far south can keep hurricanes away from the U.S. coastline, as the strong wind shear can rip hurricanes apart.
Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time, according to CSU.
CSU says warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
CSU has predicted 17 named storms. The average is 14. They also predicted 9 hurricanes, 4 of which could become major hurricanes. These numbers are also above average.
The probability of a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast, according to the CSU forecast, is 26%. The average from 1880 through 2020 is 21%.
Their main message: they anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
CSU's forecasts are considered by NOAA for their hurricane season forecast as well. Their hurricane season forecast will be updated on June 11, July 9, and August 6.
Featured video is from a previous report