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Hot Friday! Still Humid

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The upper level trough that we have been following the past several days is swinging through the Great Lakes as planned and this feature will force a weak cool front into the Appalachians today with the front approaching the Piedmont this afternoon and evening. This should give rise to more shower and thunderstorm development. Coverage should be greater than compared to yesterday. So, most places will see at least a shower or two and many places will see a thunderstorm with a downpour. The activity will gradually fade away tonight. But given the upper level dynamics some shower and thunderstorms could last well past sunset.

A push of dry air in the mid levels will arrive tomorrow as the frontal boundary stalls somewhere between I-95 and the coast. Any shower or thunderstorm should be confined to eastern areas, but it still looks largely dry. The only model showing anything in the area is the Euro which has been inching the boundary farther east over the last few days. It will be unsettled with a shower or thunderstorm along the coast, but people going to the beach should still be okay.

A large high pressure ridge will build Sunday into Monday and while there is no sign of a trigger, models are still printing out for Monday. So, we will call it very spotty for now. An upper level trough swinging into British Columbia on Sunday will move east into the Great Lakes on Tuesday and then farther to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will support a weak cold front that should sweep eastward and extend southward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday then across the mid Atlantic and into the Carolinas on Wednesday. This should lead to an increase in moist unstable air on Tuesday. We see the increased chance for a shower or thunderstorm then more activity on Wednesday with the approach of the weak front.
Model output once again shows the front stalling near or over central North Carolina Wednesday night and Thursday. We will maintain the chance for precipitation on Thursday. However, if the models underestimate the east and southward movement of the dry stable air Thursday might turn out mostly rain free again.

Tropical Storm Harvey formed late yesterday afternoon. The tropical storm is located about 140 miles east of Barbados in the Windward Islands. Harvey has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving west at a brisk 18 mph. This westward movement will bring the center of Harvey through the middle of the Windward Islands late Thursday night and during the day Friday. The tropical storm will bring heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to the Windward Islands Friday and Friday night. Harvey will continue westward probably north of the ABC Islands and remain north of South America through the upcoming weekend. 92L is also moving west to west-northwest and will eventually move on more of a consistent west northwest course through the next few days. This system has some opportunity to develop today and tomorrow as it moves away from the dry air and dust and into a more favorable environment.

Have a great day!
Steve Stewart

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