Colder Days Ahead
RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Dry and sunny weather with high temperatures just below the historical average continues through tomorrow. Tomorrow a weak shortwave moves through the region which could provide a slight increase in cloud cover, although with dry air, no precipitation is expected other than a few sprinkles.
Tomorrow night, the flow turns more northwesterly increasing cold air advection across the region. As a result, temperatures will be 10 degrees below average on Saturday. The extent and strength of this cold will be setting the scene for our next round of precipitation at the end of the weekend.
This weekend a large cross-country storm will be moving from the Plains off the mid-Atlantic coast. There is some potential for wintry precipitation across the viewing area, mainly along the NC/VA border, namely some sleet or freezing rain mixing with the expected rain.
Throughout the last several model runs the low track has continued to inch north (now in central Virginia) and show a stronger low, both of which don't favor wintry precip in NC. Because the storm has been modeled with a deepening low, there it has generated subsequent stronger warm air advection.
As a result, surface temperatures have been trending a little bit warmer which is contributing to a lower risk for any wintry precip. Of course, we'll have to keep an eye on an ever-evolving storm as minor shifts could bring more wintry precip into the viewing area.
Outside of the NC/VA border, we can expect just plain old rainy weather in central NC from Sunday night to Monday. With the base of the trough swinging through the area and a timely situated jet, there will be good upward motion which can perhaps bring a few rumbles of thunder.
As the low traverses through Virginia, it will drag a cold front through the viewing area, bringing noticeably cooler weather next week.
Following this storm, we can expect sunshine to return as weak high pressure tries to set up over the middle of the nation.
Have a great day!
Steve Stewart
