What a Weekend!

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Storm totals by the time the rain tapers to drizzle early tonight will be 0.50 to 1.00 inch over much of the region with locally higher totals of over 1.25 inches. This will be highest rain total from a single rain event since way back on Sept 27th, when we had 1.46 inches in a 24 hour period. Rains will shift east and be mainly along the coast later tonight, then clouds will slowly give way to sunshine tomorrow.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will take over for the weekend into early next week, with sunshine the rule and temperatures expected to be several degrees above the long term historical averages. This regime will remain in place until the middle of next week, before we see a pattern shift late next week towards large scale troughing over the central US. How quickly that troughing advances eastward will dictate our next chance for rain after today, with that chance increasing as early as Wednesday afternoon as of now.

Tropical Discussion: Tropical Storm Sara formed in the western Caribbean early this afternoon and will track west along or just north of the Honduran coast line tonight into Saturday. A 25-50 mile difference in low-level center placement can be the difference between a tropical storm or a major hurricane impacting Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. For now, we are leaning toward a track along of just off the north coast of Honduras which should limit Sara's development. Regardless of near-term strength, northern Honduras has the potential to see catastrophic and life-threatening rainfall amounts through the weekend given the slow-moving nature of Sara. Trends continue to suggest upper level steering currents that will eventually pick up Sara and move her northeastward late this weekend into early next week will be a bit slower to arrive, so a track mostly over the Yucatan instead of the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean continues to look more likely. Once the core of what is left of Sara moves out into the open southern Gulf

of Mexico early next week, some redevelopment seems likely. This system would likely head toward central or southern Florida in the middle of next week.

Have a great evening!

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