Snow for the weekend ... well, some snowflakes anyway.
Yesterday, we talked about why your phone might say inches of snow. The update Wednesday still keeps some snowflakes in, but I'm still not willing to forecast an amount.
RELATED: Big Weather's take on the forecast
Again, it's WAY TOO EARLY to make a snowfall forecast for the weekend. But there is a possibility of some snowflakes flying Saturday night into Sunday. Let's talk about where this forecast is coming from.
Let's again begin with the GFS (American) Model.
Yesterday, it gave us a total of 3-9" across Wake County, with a bullseye of 10" in Person County. Today, the bullseye IS Wake County with the entire area in the 6-10" range.
If we were only to look at that model, it would be a winter wonderland. But one model does not a forecast make.
Again, we'll look to our friends from across the pond and see what the Euro has to say.
Yesterday, it had 3-4" across Wake County, with highest amounts North and West. Today, it has backed us off from to 1-2".
This is that wavering that happens in models this time of year. Also, we've had warm temps in the past 24 hours. We were 20 degrees above average in spots for overnight lows. That helped to push our soil temps higher.
Thanks to the NC Climate office for the map. Yesterday, we were in the low 50s. Today, mid 50s tend to rule the roost.
And with air temps Wendesday and Thursday in the 70s, and more sunshine on Thursday beating down on that soil, temps will go even higher.
Any snowflakes that do fall Saturday night into Sunday will melt on contact. Raised surfaces like your car, or roof, may see some stick.
"So Don, what's your forecast?" Bottom line, I think things will get colder around here Saturday and Sunday, and I do think we will see some snowflakes Sunday morning.
But with ground temps so high, and temps on Sunday climbing into the upper 30s, what starts out frozen will end as cold rain.
We could, conceivably, see 1" fall in spots (not sticking much), but I'm not willing to bet on it just yet ...