Sunny Skies Ahead

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- The front is now through RDU, with the wind shifting from westerly to north-northeasterly and the temperature dropping from 68 degrees at 12:51 to 60 degrees just 20 minutes later.

The steadiest rain is now off to the east, but showers will continue through sunset and shortly thereafter just to our south and east. So far, RDU has picked up 0.49" in the past 24 hours, hardly enough to dent the drought.

Any remaining activity will be offshore to the east of the Outer Banks by midnight. The northerly flow of drier air will drop dewpoints and cause the clouds to break later tonight. Lows will be nearly 10 degrees below the historical average Thursday night.

The wind will already be turning southerly late in the day and tomorrow night will not be quite as cool as tonight, but still a few degrees below the historical average.

Saturday will be a somewhat cloudier day with better model agreement now that a system slides to our south. With that said, models still depict some very light QPF around the Triangle. The passing shower and 35 POP will remain for Saturday.

Unfortunately, model agreement has not improved for Sunday. The deterministic Euro has high pressure in control, with the GFS and at least a few of its ensembles depicting a wet day and the NAM with rain from around Charlotte southward. Given these model differences, "rain possible, mainly to the south" will remain unchanged.

The next cold front will provide an opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. The amount of rain varies between the models, although it looks like under 0.25" as of now.

However, the Canadian develops an area of low pressure as the front is passing and has over an inch of rain. PWATs do rise to around 1.50 inches even on the GFS, so downpours are certainly possible even if total amounts are low. Instability is limited, so severe weather is not expected.

Tuesday will be dry before an upper low dives southeastward from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. There are some differences among the exact evolution, with the Canadian and GFS with a depiction of a surface low going to our north and its trailing cold front causing showers.

Have a great evening!

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