Rain Today, Warm Tomorrow

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- One area of rainfall moved through the region overnight and is moving off to the east, and there will be a bit of a break in the rain through the start of the day before the bulk of the stormy weather arrives by mid-morning. That rain is still out over Tennessee, and is slowly spreading eastward as low pressure is lifting out of Texas. That storm will head northeast into Missouri today, spreading rain toward us. The heaviest rain will pass to our north and west, but we still pick up 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rain. With cool air in place from the weekend and without a strong push of mild air into the region, it will stay on the chilly side through the day, with temperatures only getting back into the mid-40s.

However, as the storm lifts up into Ohio tonight, the boundary that remains south of us today will lift to the north through the Triangle as a warm front. This meets very little resistance, and without a strong blocking high over the Northeast or eastern Canada.

This will keep temperatures from falling overnight, and there is a chance that they rise late back above 50. This also cuts off most of the rain, with just a bit of drizzle or light rain at times. Areas of fog will also form and could be very dense overnight.

This will give way to a damp start to tomorrow with lingering fog, rain and drizzle. We are less optimistic about any clearing tomorrow afternoon as the storm to our north passes its energy off to a developing low east of us off the coast. Current modeling suggests that the flow remains very light with no big dry push into the region despite a front pushing just to our south as the flow aloft remains out of the southwest. While we can't rule out some breaks of sun in the afternoon, overall it looks to stay pretty cloudy. Despite that, the southwesterly flow will send temperatures into the 60s, and it looks like a very mild day more typical of March than January!

Clouds have a better chance to break for a bit tomorrow night, but there is only a short window before the next system is spreading clouds back into the area. Low pressure will spin up along the central Gulf coast as the upper-level energy from the storm currently over the Southwest comes eastward. This low will ride along the front to our south Wednesday, but the rain will spread back into the Triangle during the day. The models are a little faster in spreading that rain toward us today, with the possibility of rain by midday. The best chance remains over southern parts of the area, but all of the models bring at least some rain by late in the day and overnight.

The storm is expected to rapidly intensify as it heads off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Cold air flooding in on the back side of the storm may catch up to the precipitation in time to allow for some snowflakes to mix in later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Blustery and colder conditions return behind the departing storm Thursday. High pressure will then promote a dry and quiet end to the week and at least start to the new weekend. However, another storm looks to spread rainy weather back into the area Sunday.

Have a great week!

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