Getting Cooler by Sunday

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Thunderstorms have developed to the west in association with a weak shortwave. As that shortwavemoves to the east, the thunderstorms will follow suit. Instability is marginal, but summertime thunderstorms are always capable of producing flooding downpours and localized damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorms can linger into this evening before the rest of the overnight is dry but remains humid.

Tomorrow afternoon and evening will likely be a similar to today (although with slightly lower POPs) before thunderstorm chances increase with the approach of a cold front on Sunday. With the cold front likely to actually come through early in the day, any severe threat will largely be to our south. However, PWATs remaining around or just over 2 inches will keep the flash flooding threat in play.

A cutoff low to the south of a massive ridge stretching from the Rockies east-northeastward to the Great Lakes will be centered over Arkansas on Monday. However, strung out vorticity will extend eastward right through North Carolina. This will keep a stray thunderstorm around on that day.

After that, the aforementioned ridge will reorient with the closed 594 height contour at 500 mb including our area from Tuesday onward per the GFS. This will end the chances of showers and thunderstorms but increase the heat. The GFS would suggest the next heat wave starting on Wednesday with the Canadian holding off until Thursday and the Euro suggesting no heat wave at all. This is due to the ridge staying to our north and west per the Euro depiction. Meanwhile the Canadian has that ridge and another one centered to our south and east.

Regardless of the exact temperatures, it appears that dewpoints may only be in the 60s before potentially returning to the 70s next weekend.

Have a great weekend!

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