ANALYSIS: 2014 Midterms Among Most Important "Off Year" Elections in NC History
Unlike most states, North Carolina voters elect their Governor at the same time they cast ballots for President rather than during "off year" elections such as today's. And, during Presidential years, we elect more statewide office holders (Labor Commissioner, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Secretary of State and so on) than almost any other state. So, by comparison, it is rare for midterm elections to be a big deal here. But since the beginning of our state's modern political history (which most pundits peg as beginning with the 1950 U.S. Senate race between Frank Porter Graham and Willis Smith), there have been a few exceptions to the ho-hum midterm trend. And 2014 will almost certainly be one of them. Indeed, so much is at stake for both Democrats and Republicans in North Carolina that, regardless of which party has the better night, today's elections will almost assuredly be considered among the Top 5 most important midterms for years to come.
To put this year's midterms in context, here is a rundown of some of the most important "off year" elections in North Carolina over the past 75 years and an explanation for why today's results could take their place among them:
2010 Because Democratic control of the state House and state Senate ended just as the once-a-decade redistricting process was set to begin, the Republican landslide was doubly meaningful: the GOP took over the General Assembly and drew maps for state legislative and Congressional districts with the intent of locking in the party's 2010 gains for years to come. Republican Richard Burr was re-elected to the US Senate by handily defeating the Democrats' nominee, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Burr was the first incumbent to hold that Senate seat since Sam Ervin retired in 1974. And Republican Renee Ellmers ousted longtime Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge.
1986 President Ronald Reagan crisscrossed the South stumping for the freshman GOP Senators swept into office six years before as part of The Gipper's 1980 victory over Jimmy Carter. But his efforts were to no avail as Democrats - led by former North Carolina Governor turned President of Duke University Terry Sanford's win over sitting (by appointment) Senator Jim Broyhill - picked up eight seats and control of the U.S. Senate. The year also saw a Duke political science professor named David Price handily defeat GOP Congressional incumbent Bill Cobey. Amazingly, 28 years later both men are still front and center in public life: Price as a Congressman serving his 12th term; Cobey as Chair of the State Board of Education.
1994 Price's only break in service as Representative for North Carolina's Fourth District came in 1994 as part of the national GOP landslide. While gains in North Carolina and elsewhere led to Newt Gingrich's ascension as Speaker of the U.S. House, Republican gains in the General Assembly led to the party's first state House Speaker in the 20th Century.
1950 Frank Porter Graham's loss to Willis Smith in the runoff for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate (tantamount to election in the still one-party South) was a setback for progressives across North Carolina and the nation. Books have been written about the race and I summarize key aspects of the campaign in an article recently published by the UNC Law Review. A generation of North Carolina political leaders came of age during the Graham-Smith battle including Terry Sanford, soon to be UNC System President Bill Friday, and future Republican US Senator Jesse Helms.
2014 Tonight's results will answer so many big questions it is hard to imagine this midterm will be quickly forgotten. Can Kay Hagan defy the GOP tide poised to carry the party back into control of the U.S. Senate? If so, she will cement herself as a major national figure within the Democratic Party. If Thom Tillis prevails, a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate seems assured. As for the congressional races, Democrats got a strong candidate Clay "American Idol" Aiken to Ellmers in the Second District and the GOP opponent they wanted in the Sixth. Will the races be competitive or are the districts so favorably drawn for Republicans that Democrats stand little hope of victory until after the next round of redistricting? While often overlooked, there are tremendously important judicial races on the ballot including a majority (four out of seven) of the seats on the state Supreme Court. The Wake County Commissioner races, where four Republican incumbents face energetic Democratic challengers, will say a lot about whether a critical swing county is red, blue or permanently purple. And, last but not least, the 2014 results could have a big impact on the start of the 2016 races for Governor, Council of State and even the General Assembly. If Democrats can chip away at the now "supersized" Republican majorities in the state House and Senate, plus hold on to Hagan's seat, the leading Democratic candidate for Governor - Attorney General Roy Cooper - will start his tough, two year race against incumbent Pat McCrory with a boost.
Hampton Dellinger, former Deputy Attorney General in the North Carolina Department of Justice, sought the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor in 2008. He will be participating in a live chat on abc11.com starting at 8 p.m. Tuesday.
