Vance, Walz take predictable paths in debate unlikely to change election: ANALYSIS

Call it the Rorschach-test debate.

Ohio GOP Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz met for a vice presidential debate marked on calendars as one of the last major opportunities to influence voters' decisions before Election Day.

Instead, operatives in both parties told ABC News, both sides are likely to find things they like from their candidates' remarks, and undecided voters are probably going to stay that way.

That's on top of the history of vice presidential debates and nominees doing little to serve as major factors in elections -- a trend expected to be cemented even further this year with one presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, boasting universal name recognition.

"Nobody in history has voted for a presidential candidate based on a VP debate. Both of these guys are doing enough so that their side thinks they are winning," said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the center left think tank Third Way and former campaign aide in Michael Dukakis' 1988 Democratic presidential campaign.

"I watched the 1988 VP debate in a Dukakis campaign office, and when [former Sen. Lloyd] Bentsen dropped his 'you're no Jack Kennedy' line, we high-fived in glee. Then we went on to lose 40 states," he added.

Each candidate followed predictable paths in Tuesday night's debate in New York -- a city whose residents widely tout it as a center of American culture but whose sway is questioned by Americans from elsewhere.

Vance opened up his remarks by noting his upbringing "in a working-class family" and service in the Marine Corps. He proclaimed that "Donald Trump actually delivered stability in the world" by creating "deterrence." And he pressed Walz on what limits he believed in regarding abortion.

Walz also brought up his upbringing in a small Nebraska town and service in the National Guard. He praised Vice President Kamala Harris' "steady leadership" on the world stage and "understanding that allies matter." And he knocked Vance for "blaming migrants for everything."

To be certain, there were some fireworks. The candidates' microphones had to be muted during a heated back-and-forth over the legal status of migrants in Springfield, Ohio. And toward the end of the debate, Walz pressed Vance -- and Vance dodged -- over whether Trump lost the 2020 election and the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob.

And there was no lack of running chatter on style from the starting gun -- Walz started off shakily before settling in, while Vance's media polish remained largely untarnished throughout the night.

Both campaigns quickly claimed victory.

"Senator Vance unequivocally won tonight's debate in dominating fashion. It was the best debate performance from any Vice-Presidential candidate in history," top Trump campaign aides Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita said in a statement.

"On every single issue -- the economy, health care, foreign policy, reproductive freedom, gun violence -- Governor Walz won," Harris campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon wrote in her own statement.

Still, most lobs were aimed at the presidential nominees rather than the candidates on stage, and both Vance and Walz noted their opponents' supposedly genuine desire to tackle tough issues. As far as a debate between two opposing candidates go, it almost seemed amicable.

"Zero movement. Something for each side to like," said Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco.

One national GOP strategist texted ABC News a Venn diagram of "people interested enough in politics to watch the VP debate" and "Undecided voters." The circles did not overlap.

"Both did what they had to do. No major mistakes," the source said. "Neither will break anything."

Even Walz referenced other programs coinciding with the debate, name-checking "Dancing with the Stars" in his closing remarks.

The campaigns will still likely race to clip and publish what they view as the most advantageous exchanges from the debate to try to boost their ticket to try to find some magic in a bottle that breaks through.

But it has become a cliché of presidential elections that a running mate's perennial goal is to "do no harm." No. 2's rarely boost a White House ticket in any meaningful way, but they can certainly help tank one. Any attention from undecided voters is likely to be negative, and keeping them on the fence may be the best case scenario for both Vance and Walz coming out of Tuesday's head-to-head.

One former senior Trump administration official told ABC News that "with Harris' lack of press engagement, some voters came to this debate looking to learn more about what her potential administration might pursue" and that they thought Vance "was in a different class tonight."

Still, this person said, "Some undecided voters are watching. More are watching the MLB playoffs or a Seinfeld rerun."