ACC betting preview: New-look Miami's repeat chances, underdogs for the title and more

The Miami Hurricanes could be one of the best teams in the ACC, but that doesn't automatically make them one of the best bets. Will they be good enough to win 11 regular-season games? Will they be good enough to justify laying -135 to win the ACC? It's a no from me on both.

Last season, Miami won 10 regular-season games, earned an at-large berth to the CFP and made a run to theCollege Football Playoff National Championship gamewhile finishing the season 11-5 ATS. Asking the Hurricanes to repeat those kinds of results is a big ask, especially with the production they're replacing.

The success of their season was driven by having the No. 1 pass rush in the country, but their top two pass rushers that accounted for more than half of the sack production (Akheem Mesidor, Rueben Bain Jr.) are gone. The secondary could be solid once more, but coverage and pass rush go hand in hand. If the pass rush allows quarterbacks more time to throw, even a talented secondary becomes harder to trust.

Then there's transfer QB Darian Mensah, whose overall numbers at Duke were solid with 3,973 passing yards for 34 TDs. He protected the ball, produced explosive plays and finished with a 76.6 QBR (19th in the country). But I'm not ready to assume that he will immediately elevate this offense in Miami because the Hurricanes are replacing four starters on the offensive line. Mensah's efficiency changed dramatically when pressured, as he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt but dropped to 4.7 under pressure. That's a reminder that he benefited from good protection, and there's no guarantee he'll get that same environment right off the bat.

Futures are about price, not picking the best team. Miami could be good, win 10 games and contend for the ACC, but laying -135 to win the conference or bet on OVER 10.5 wins is the problem.

If not Miami, then who?

Louisville OVER 8.5 wins (+124) and Louisville to win ACC (+800)

Jeff Brohm has proved he can build an offense, and although transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz is an unknown, I like the fit. His mobility could help offset an offensive line replacing tackles. Isaac Brown is one of the best running backs in the conference, Louisville's secondary could be elite and the defense has playmakers who can create turnovers.Returning at least one proven anchor in DL Clev Lubin on the pass rush is a positive, too. However, losing the top two receivers Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy matters, but at plus money, the market is pricing in too much downside. The strengths outweigh the questions for a value team.

When it comes to winning the ACC, if I'm not interested in laying -135 for Miami. I'll look to a team that has a proven head coach, a game-changing back, a defense that should keep the Cardinals in games and a quarterback with enough upside to raise the ceiling if he hits. At 8-1, you're not looking for the best team on paper. You're looking at key pieces that could excel as the season progresses.

Secondary bets

SMU OVER 8.5 wins (-136)

The juice is similar to Miami's ACC title price, but you'd be paying for a much simpler outcome with SMU. There's enough data to support the path for the Mustangs to win nine games. QB Kevin Jennings returns after leading SMU to a 14-3 ACC record over the past two seasons, the offensive line brings back continuity and the Mustangs avoid both Miami and Clemson in conference play.

Even with defensive turnover, the schedule gives SMU multiple opportunities to stack wins before the tough stretch. This wager at this price is about a proven program reaching a realistic regular-season benchmark, while Miami adds the need to navigate the added variance of tiebreakers and a conference championship game.

Consider week-to-week UNDER markets for North Carolina

This is less about predicting a season win total and more about finding value early in the year. The Tar Heels went 4-7 to the UNDER last season, 2-4 on the road. North Carolina returns multiple defensive starters -- including its leading sack producer -- while the offense is trying to prove it can take a meaningful step after averaging just 287 yards per game, bottom 10 in the country.

The receiving corps has been rebuilt through the portal, and the offense opens against TCU, then faces Notre Dame, Duke, Miami, Louisville and Virginia; all of those programs are expected to be competitive once again. Until the passing game shows real improvement, I expect the defense to keep UNC competitive while the offense struggles to put up points.

That makes early-season team total UNDERs and full-game UNDERs worth watching, especially against quality defenses before the market adjusts.

Other bets to consider

By Mark Zinno

Virginia OVER 7.5 wins (-150)

For the second year in a row, the scheduling gods have looked favorably on the Cavaliers. They avoid Notre Dame and Miami again while swapping out Stanford and Louisville for Syracuse and SMU. They have to travel to Dallas (which is as far west as they go), and the toughest road environment will be at Lane Stadium in the Commonwealth Cup. There are reasons to question the offense with Beau Pribula (Missouri transfer), but six starters return and the offensive line is mostly intact from last year.

But this team will still win with defense, where it returns eight starters and four of the top six tacklers from last season. UVA is a projected favorite in all but two games this season, and I like the spot for coach Tony Elliott to sustain momentum from last year's 11-win season. If the Cavaliers beat North Carolina State in their first game -- which they haven't done since 2012 -- I think they will win nine games this year.

Virginia Tech OVER 6.5 wins (-170)

Juicy? Sure. But James Franklin has brought new life to Blacksburg, and there's plenty of reason for optimism. The Hokies are one of seven teams in the country to return at least 17 starters (nine on offense) from last year. Franklin brought QB Ethan Grunkemeyer with him from Happy Valley and retained fired head coach Brent Pry as his defensive coordinator.

On the upside, a 5-0 start doesn't seem that far-fetched given the Hokies' toughest opponent in that span is Pitt in Week 5, and the game is at home. The downside is they play six true road games this year, and losing four of their last five, including the Commonwealth Cup against UVA, is a real possibility. I still like Franklin and the Hokies to turn the ACC on its side this fall.

Georgia Tech UNDER 6.5 wins (-125)

After the high that was 2025, Brent Key might get to experience how the other half lives again on the Flats. The Yellow Jackets lost Heisman-level play at QB with the departure of Haynes King, and his successor, Aaron Philo, is now at Florida along with Buster Faulkner, Georgia Tech's OC from last season.

Think it can't get worse? Only two offensive line starters return, and DC Blake Gideon is back at Texas. The Yellow Jackets return only 10 starters in total. Key is a good coach, but this is an avalanche of change. The Jackets are favored in only four conference games, and it looks like they would need to win two out of three against Tennessee, Clemson and Georgia to get to seven wins. I don't see it happening here with all the uncertainty.