Mark Armstrong: What have we learned so far?
Forgive me if some of this comes out garbled as I'm still dealing with an irregular heartbeat and occasional bouts of nausea following Utah's ridiculous win/disaster over Wichita State last night. But here goes - we're still just a few games deep into college hoops season, but some things are starting to be made clear with each of our three Triangle ACC teams. They are, in my mind, as follows:
Duke
A truly stunning performance at Wisconsin. When you beat the Badgers by double digits, AT THEIR PLACE, with a relatively quiet outing from your best player (13 pts and 6 boards from Jah Okafor) and with another one of your best 3 being largely invisible (5 pts and 4 turnovers from Justise Winslow) you know you're onto something good.
All the preseason talk centered about Quinn Cook's ability to co-exist, or exist at all alongside a more talented freshman point in Tyus Jones. Mike Krzyzewski dismissed that notion and so far he looks to be a guy who knows what he's talking about (BREAKING NEWS). Cook has been largely brilliant so far, a model of steadiness alongside Jones, who's been somewhat predictably unpredictable. Plus - he makes faces like this after big plays, and that's gotta be worth something.
That said - there's no overstating just how good Tyus was last night. He's clearly got a passing eye that's not gifted to many, but against the Badgers, Jones showed an offensive aggressiveness and big game killer instinct that will make Duke a near impossible out going forward. Couple that with Rasheed Sulaimon suddenly poking his head up so confidently and Blue Devil fans have to be giddy.
Clearly, there's no way you expect to shoot 65% in all big games going forward, but what jumped out to me the most was how many legitimate options the Devils have on offense. Everyone in the starting lineup, save Amile, can put up 20. And everyone in the starting lineup looks like they'll embrace rather than flee from the toughest moments ahead.
Conclusion: Oh, they good. Title game good.
UNC
As much as Carolina fans are now hardened to early season ugliness, that doesn't make the Butler and now Iowa performances any less inexplicable. We'd all expect some ebbs and flows with a young team, but this group is experienced. Not only that, it's supposedly talented experience, the rarest commodity in college hoops.
The catch with Roy at Kansas was constant tournament flameouts. The catch at Carolina is the persistence of baffling early season performances against overmatched opponents.
I don't think I'm insulting either Butler or Iowa if I say they've got vastly inferior manpower to the Tar Heels. That leaves everyone, Roy included, questioning intangible qualities like the 'toughness' of his team and yes, his coaching. They are tired tropes now about Roy/Carolina, but they persist for a reason, because teams like this keep fueling them.
Marcus Paige is clearly not himself at this point of the season, his shooting percentages are way down and he's yet to rediscover the 2nd half magic of last season. Thing is, expecting crunch time dominance the likes of which he displayed last year is entirely unreasonable, and it shouldn't be necessary anyway. The problem is finding a dependable secondary scorer in the half court. Kennedy Meeks has been good but is still mostly a grunt work guy, Brice Johnson is too mercurial and JP Tokoto can't shoot. That leaves Justin Jackson to get this team over the hump and turn it into a real contender.
Jackson has the frame and the game to be that second weapon and often first weapon game in and out imo. He just needs the push. In today's game there's no time to be deferential. If you're better than the guys older than you, act the part.
Conclusion: Roy's track record suggests this team will be much better when it matters, but given what we've seen so far, the ceiling seems much lower than what we expected.
NC STATE
Another heartbreakingly close defeat, and another entry into the overflowing annals of NC State Sh%#!. It may be a legit rule that you can't step out of bounds on your own volition and then be the first person to catch ball once you return inbounds, but only NC State would have that whistled against them in crunch time of a close game. Even UNC and Duke fans would have to concur with that.
The complete inability to hit a free throw didn't help either.
We were flying somewhat blind headed into this season with the Wolfpack, so despite the loss at Purdue, I think there's plenty of reason for optimism. Exhibit A on that front is Trevor Lacey. It was one thing to see his numbers at Alabama, another to hear folks like Mark Gottfried and Julius Hodge single him out as the team leader and quite another entirely to finally watch him on the court. In short shrift, Lacey has shown himself to be a scorer, but more importantly, a scorer when it matters. The way he finished off Boise State coupled with the big shots he hit down the stretch in West Lafayette made it clear that he's the lead dog and worthy of the title. Or, putting it another way:
What Cat Barber shows up from night to night will be an ongoing storyline. We heard so much about his dedication to the craft of point guard-ing this summer and emphasis on decision making. That's obviously a work in progress. He's got the highlight reel quickness and handle, but Cat continues to giveth and Cat continues to taketh away. That'll need to much more of the former in league play.
Ralston Turner looks to be Ralston Turner again, as do the frontline players. All solid, if unspectacular. I'm interested to see if/how the roles of Abdul Malik Abu and Desmond Lee change over the year. They've been non-factors so far, which I don't think many, myself included, expected.
Conclusion: There are enough pieces to be nibbling around the edges of the ACC's top tier (Duke, UVA, Louisville, UNC (I think) and Miami). Cat Barber's continued evolution holds the key. A definite tournament team IMO.
