What early voting numbers can tell us about election outcome

As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots throughout the country.

Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling stations, more than 70 million Americans, roughly 44% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab.

Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been going through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week's outcome.

That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's election data science lab.

"It's like talking about the weather," he said. "The candidates, the press, etcetera -- really are trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn't a lot there to say who is winning."

That said, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insights when it comes to this year's voting patterns and overall turnout -- indicators that could help explain how the election turns out.

A flip in the ways people early vote

Voting trends have shown that more people have been choosing to cast their ballots before Election Day, and this has increased in numbers over the last 30 years, but 2020 turned out to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either through the mail, which included mail ballots dropped off in person, or at early voting poll sites, according to data from MIT.

Some 43% of the 2020 early votes came from mail ballots, according to the data.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt into using mail ballots or smaller voting lines if available.

"There was a speculation of what would happen with the shift once the pandemic was over," he said.

However, in this year's early voting there's been a drop in voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.

"The main trend I'm seeing is that the interest of voting by mail has shifted to voting in-person," Stewart said.

He noted that shift is apparent in Georgia, which has seen record early voting numbers, with over 4 million ballots cast as of Saturday. Roughly 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest via mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State's office.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or at a designated location, and they are counted as a mail ballot voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and are likely going to vote in-person Stewart said.

"If you have to vote early in person you have to figure out where that precinct is but you have to find out which is closer to your house or errands. With voting by mail, you have to take the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope that the mail is delivered on time," he said. "With Election Day voting you likely have a polling site that is much closer to you."

Early-voting method preference hasn't the only thing that's seen a flip, according to Stewart.

Partisan numbers do not give any indication of outcome

Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.

This year's data shows that to be the case, he said, bit noted a major change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab.

Registered Republicans have seen a higher early voting turnout in battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, according to the data.

Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their vote earlier and that appears to have an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data.

He noted it shows, so far, that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast their votes early came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a "red mirage" effect on the outcome.

That mirage and "blue wave" could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

"Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it," he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

"It's not always obvious to the public that there's always been a gender gap," he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their votes by mail than Black voters, according to the MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions going back to the civil rights movement.

"African Americans fought and sometimes died for being able to march into the voting booth. That's been instilled in the community," he said.

This practice is one factor in large numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting poll sites in states such as Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community have been pushing voters to head to the early voting polls, using campaigns such as "souls to the polls" so that they can avoid any complications on Election Day.

Groups in Georgia in particular have stressed voting early to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws that have been put in place since the 2020 election.

As of Saturday morning, more than 1 million Black voters have cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State's office.

"The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective," Stewart said.

Signs point to high turnout

Stewart said the one definite conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year's overall turnout will be "on par" with 2020's, which was the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years.

"It could be the high 160 (million)," he estimated.

Stewart said that the early-voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet voted and they will typically line up on Election Day.

"Those populations are really heavily represented on Election Day," he said.

Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of the 2020 early voters will likely shift back to Election Day voting, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedules.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the rise in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles along with the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

"The data is showing this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic," he said. "Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices."