Yep, I said it. I wanted to be the First to Alert you about it.
Do I think it's going to happen, probably not. I mean, it HAS happened before. We saw a trace of snow in Raleigh in 1887...
And that was the last Halloween snowfall, so it's not that scary. Now, let's talk about our possibility this Halloween.
In the latest run of one of the models (the GFS), it shows enough cold air wrapping in that it could change rain to snow.
Here's the thing...models, this far out, are NOTORIOUSLY wrong.
Do you remember what the European model said about Hurricane Dorian this far out?
It had the storm crossing Florida, which of course didn't happen. So that's why I'm not too worried about the slim chance of snow flying in the Triangle on Halloween.
"So, if these long-range models are wrong, why use them?" you might be thinking.
Long-range models do give us a glimpse at trends, especially when it comes to temperatures. And in this case, the models are in agreement that we will see more intrusions of colder air around Halloween. It is fall and that tends to happen, but October has been an interesting month in 2019.
We started the month with the hottest temp ever in October (100) and we will end with morning temps around freezing.
It's like North Carolina saying "You think I can't show you all four seasons in one month? Here, hold my beer..."