What early voting trends signal in North Carolina a week out until Election Day 2024

NORTH CAROLINA (WTVD) -- With just a week left to go until Election Day, we're getting a better idea of who's turning out to vote.

Over 3.1 million people across North Carolina have cast ballots between absentee and early in-person voting.

As of Tuesday, registered Republicans have a slight turnout edge over registered Democrats, 34%-33%, with the remaining 32% Unaffiliated.

Something GOP volunteers see that as a positive sign.

"I'm excited I'm encouraged, and I'm surprised, it was a great surprise," says Sandy Joiner with the Western Wake Republican Club.

Sandy Joiner says for Republicans, it's a change from 2020 when voters were told to wait until Election Day.

"I think that was a big part of the push was that Democrats are always dominated in early voting and it was like, what can we do to get the message out to make sure that we that we're out there voting and we don't wait until Election Day. And so we've been really heavily promoting that," she says.

The data also shows Black voters, historically a core part of the Democratic base are slightly behind in turnout, representing 18% of those who have voted, despite being 20% of registered voters.

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Former State Representative Larry Hall (D - Durham) says he believes that can turn around this week.

"I'd always rather be far ahead than even always. That's not where we are at this time, but we're far ahead on effort and determination and the message we have," Hall says.

Another data point Democrats are looking at is the fact that women are outvoting men 55%-45%, at a time when women's rights have become a key campaign issue.

Democrats also believe they'll get some crossover support and that Unaffiliated voters, who make up the state's largest voting bloc can break their way.

"The unaffiliated voters are key. They're younger. The newly registered voters are much younger. The younger vote is breaking for Harris, and virtually every poll is going to say they're in favor of Harris. So we feel encouraged about that. And it's a matter of getting them to the polls," Hall says.

Meanwhile, political science experts from Duke University are also cautioning people not to read too much in the 2024 turnout data compared to four years ago, because the electorate was much different then.

"In a pandemic, we saw so many more people voting absentee ballot, and also there's been a fundamental change in messaging from Republicans and so we're seeing a much larger percentage of Republicans voting early and absentee," says Professor Sunshine Hillygus.

In the long term, experts believe the changing demographics of our state could shift the political landscape with a more diverse electorate and more transplants from other states in the same way that Georgia flipped blue in 2020 for Joe Biden.

"North Carolina may be beginning to look like Georgia in terms of racial and ethnic demographics but also the number of people moving into the state from the outside, there's been a change in the population over the last 4 years that it could be enough to make North Carolina trend from purple-ish to blue," says Professor Kerry Haynie.