On eve of Election Day, candidates know North Carolina voters could swing national results

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- State Board of Elections Executive Director Karen Brinson Bell anticipates more than one million voters will cast their ballots on Election Day in North Carolina, as both parties make a final push in the state.

As of Sunday morning, about 4.4 million votes had been cast, including a record 4.1 million during in-person, early voting.

The COVID-19 pandemic shifted voting habits in 2020, with many opting to utilize mail-in ballots. Bell shared advice for those who have not yet voted, but were planning on utilizing that option.

"Absolutely, positively do not mail your ballot at this point. It will not make it in time to be counted. You have two options. You can deliver it by hand to your county board of Elections through 5 p.m. (Monday) or by 7:30 p.m. tomorrow (Election Day). Absentee ballots cannot be dropped off at Election Day voting sites. Or you can discard your absentee ballot and vote in person at your Election Day polling place," said Bell.

According to state law, ballots cannot be counted until polls close at 7:30, with Bell laying out a general timeline of when unofficial results could be posted.

"If there's anyone in line at 7:30 p.m., until those last voters have voted, those workers will not be able to bring in results or close down their polling places. The bulk of results are going to be uploaded between 9:30 p.m. and 11 p.m., most likely given the drive time that it takes in many of our counties, and we'll just push them out as quickly as we can," said Bell.

"You'll have this 10-day period after Election Day where a small number, relatively, of ballots still need to be counted. But as of election night, as (Bell) said, when the last results come in midnight or hopefully soon thereafter, it will be roughly 98% of the votes cast," added Paul Cox, General Counsel of the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

Statewide, 57% of registered voters have cast ballots.

"Voter turnout in the 25 western North Carolina counties affected by Hurricane Helene continues to outpace turnout statewide. In those 25 counties, voter turnout is at 59%, two percentage points higher than turnout statewide," Bell noted.

At this juncture, demographic breakdowns of who has voted are available, with unaffiliated, Republican, and Democratic voters split fairly evenly thus far. A shift in messaging for the GOP has paid off, as the party has seen stronger participation in early voting than previous years.

White and older voters have participated at a disproportionate rate relative to their population make-up, though that lessened throughout early voting.

"At first, it looked like minority voters and young voters were not coming out and they ramped it up toward the end," said Dr. David McLennan, a Political Science Professor at Meredith College.

Trump has made four stops in the state over the past three days, a notable presence as he looks to carry North Carolina for the third straight cycle.

"North Carolina is critical to the Trump campaign. And so the fact that he's spent so much time here, and money, is a sign of how important it is, but it's also a sign that it's not as safe as it was four years ago. The fact that he's both in the rural parts of the state as well as in Raleigh, indicates that it's all hands-on deck kind of approach. On the flip side, the Harris campaign has been here pretty regularly, too. I think both sides look at North Carolina as critical. They've also been in Pennsylvania a lot and Wisconsin. I think they know the map and the consequences. It's been a frenetic last two weeks.They've been all over the battleground states," said McLennan.

According to polling averages compiled by 538, Trump has a 1.4% lead in North Carolina, a gap similar to his margin of victory in 2020.

"By and large, for the last month or six weeks, it's been just bouncing around a very narrow margin. It shows the reality of North Carolina being a very competitive state or we have all missed together," said McLennan.