NCAA men's basketball: 2024-25 preseason picks, predictions

ByESPN

Monday, November 4, 2024

With all of the monumental changes across men's college basketball, this season's theme can probably be captured in one word: mileage.

It begins in Durham, North Carolina, where fans from all around the country will travel for a glimpse of Duke's Cooper Flagg, the 6-foot-9 freshman phenom and projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft. Expect to see celebrities hop on private jets to Cameron Indoor Stadium to join the kind of buzz that this sport has not witnessed since Zion Williamson's lone season with the Blue Devils in 2018-19.

The effect of massive conference realignment means West Coast schools will also crisscross the country to play conference games. Oregoncoach Dana Altman is so concerned about possible jet lag, he has called NBA and NFL teams to get the scoop on traveling to different time zones. UCLAcoach Mick Cronin told reporters he wants comfortable beds on the Bruins' chartered flights to the East Coast.

Don't be surprised if it takes a while to get used to some of the other major changes in the sport. John Calipari will be wearing red suits and sweaters this season as the coach at Arkansas -- 700 miles from his previous school, Kentucky. Cal aims to start fresh in Fayetteville and prove he can win without Big Blue Nation.

Clifford Omoruyi relocated 994 miles south of Rutgers to Alabama, which could cut down the nets at the end of season in part because of his decision. AJ Storr made the 500-mile trek from Wisconsin to Kansas, where he'll be a key player for the preseason No. 1 team. Not everyone has had to travel that far, though: Kadary Richmond, an all-Big East first-team member at Seton Hall last season, is now with Rick Pitino at St. John's, just an hour from his old school.

A lot has happened since April 8. We're here to help make some sense of it.

ESPN's Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Neil Paine answer some questions about the teams and players that should capture your attention this season -- and make a couple of picks and predictions along the way.

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2024-25 PREDICTIONS

The most interesting team

Joe Lunardi: Any time Alabama basketball has greater expectations than Alabama football, it creates a story. And, on the hardwood, it's one full of upside. Alabama was the NCAA tournament's No. 1 overall seed in 2023. The Tide reached the school's first Final Four in 2024. The natural progression for 2024-25 would be a national championship, which is very much within reach for coach Nate Oats entering his sixth season in Tuscaloosa.

Neil Paine: All eyes have to be on Duke, with Cooper Flagg leading one of the most talented teams -- on paper -- to ever take the court at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Blue Devils began to find their stride in the Jon Scheyer era last season, making it all the way to the Elite Eight. A lot of that team is now departed, but this season's edition welcomes the nation's top recruiting class (by far) in addition to a handful of solid transfers. If Scheyer can mold them into something more than the sum of their considerable parts, Duke could add to its collection of national championships in March.

Jeff Borzello: There are so many storylines at Indiana. It's a pivotal season for Mike Woodson. There was pressure on him toward the end of the previous campaign, but he now has a talented roster that's more than good enough to win NCAA tournament games. Despite landing one of the elite transfer classes in the country, there are still questions surrounding the group's shooting and frontcourt spacing. I won't be surprised if the Hoosiers are the Big Ten champs and Final Four contenders in March. I also wouldn't be stunned if they don't hit their ceiling.

Myron Medcalf: Someone stole Penny Hardaway's exclusive shoes off his front porch this summer, and it was barely a footnote to the drama attached to Memphis. Hardaway was suspended three games last season for NCAA recruiting violations. He has made the NCAA tournament twice in six seasons. And he abruptly fired most of his coaching staff just months before the start of this campaign. He has just one returning player on the roster. Hardaway is in the most critical year of his tenure. He has so much pull in Memphis as a former player and NBA star who stayed in his hometown after his career ended, but it seems like Hardaway has to give school officials more confidence to avoid any hot seat talk in March.

The 'mystery team'

Paine: I might be a little biased as a resident of the Fayetteville metro area, but I'm fascinated to see what Arkansas does in John Calipari's first season. In true Coach Cal fashion, the Razorbacks had a top-10 recruiting class, headlined by dynamic PG Boogie Fland. But they were also among the most active teams in the transfer portal. Calipari's teams have underperformed badly in the tournament over the past three years, so I'm not completely sold on Arkansas yet, but its upside is undeniable.

Borzello: In an era of college basketball when teams are built via older players from the transfer portal, Rutgers hopes it's still possible to win with freshmen at the top of the roster. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper are top-three-projected picks in June's NBA draft; how far can they take Steve Pikiell's team? He surrounded his two stars with a slew of midmajor transfers, but the team lacks proven interior size, and it's worth wondering whether Pikiell can maintain his recent elite defenses with two of the best offensive players in the country.

Medcalf: With the return of Braden Smith, Purdue will have an All-American guard running the show. The Boilermakers also return key vets, such as Fletcher Loyer, who made 44% of his 3-point attempts last season. But Matt Painter's squad also lost the best player in college basketball for the past two years. It's not clear how Purdue will account for the loss of Zach Edey. There are candidates -- see Trey Kaufman-Renn -- who could make Purdue a valid threat in March. There's also a world where it has lost too much to get through the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Lunardi: A year ago, Gonzaga entered February on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble. It would have been Mark Few's first tournament miss in his quarter century in Spokane. Instead, by late March, the Bulldogs were back in their accustomed spot in the Sweet 16. Which version of the Zags will we see in 2024-25? More specifically, can Gonzaga break down the last door between Few and a national championship? One has to think it will happen eventually.

The first top-25 team to exit the NCAA tournament

Borzello: My preseason top 25 had the same teams as the AP preseason top 25, so there's no team that stands out from that perspective -- but let's talk about Florida. I love Walter Clayton Jr. as a scorer and Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin has drawn positive reviews in Gainesville, but this team is still lacking a pass-first playmaker. I'm interested in whether the defense will take a step forward despite the losses of Micah Handlogten and Tyrese Samuel. The Gators allowed at least 79 points in each of their final seven games last season, and they might not have the explosiveness to simply outscore teams.

Paine: Florida. Todd Golden's team made strides last season, rising from No. 74 to No. 26 on KenPom and returning to the tournament after a two-year absence. But it will also be down a couple of starters -- including Handlogten, whose injury during the SEC tourney will cause him to miss all of this season. Florida ranks outside the projected top 25 of both Pomeroy's and Bart Torvik's statistical systems, and was just 62nd in 247sports' composite ranking of talent added through recruiting and the portal.

Lunardi: Just a hunch, obviously, but wouldn't it be ironic if the early-round woes continued for Kentucky? Certainly Mark Pope has assembled a roster that could be playing into April, but it might also turn out that John Calipari wasn't the problem. We shall see.

Medcalf: Yes, Rutgers might have a pair of top-three draft picks anchoring one of college basketball's most fascinating shows this season, as it chases its first Final Four run in nearly 50 years. But as Kentucky recently showed, teams led by young stars face challenges in a landscape featuring more older, experienced teams. While I believe Rutgers will be one of the most intimidating young teams because of the talent on its roster, I also think the NCAA tournament is more difficult for those players to navigate in this current climate.

A non-power-conference school we should all root for

Lunardi: Put me in the Dayton camp. There's a reason the NCAA continues to play the First Four at the UD Arena. Dayton fans are as loyal as they come, and the basketball gods still owe them for missing the 2020 tournament that was canceled because of the pandemic with a Final Four-caliber team.

Medcalf: That's easy. Grambling. Last season, Donte Jackson's squad reached the NCAA tournament for the first time as a Division I institution. Then, the Tigers won their first tournament game with an overtime victory against Montana State in the First Four. Jackson's plan to "throw the whole kitchen" at Purdue's Zach Edey didn't work, but the Tigers earned a lot of national support for showing no fear against the top seed. With the return of Kintavious Dozier -- who scored 16 points against the Boilermakers -- Grambling is ready for another run to the top of the SWAC.

Borzello: It's really hard not to root for Tyon Grant-Foster and Grand Canyon. The Antelopes have been to three of the past four NCAA tournaments and knocked off 5-seed Saint Mary's in the first round last season. They should be even better. Grant-Foster is a legitimate All-America candidate after averaging 20.1 points last season -- after going through multiple heart surgeries and leaving the game behind for 16 months. Finishing his college career with a couple more NCAA tournament wins would cap an incredible story.

Paine: Saint Mary'shasconsistently been one of the nation's best non-power-conference teams under Randy Bennett but is always fighting to escape the long shadow of WCC rival Gonzaga. Last season, the Gaels overcame a rough nonconference stretch (five losses in six games) to win 23 of 25 through the conference tourney, including snapping the Bulldogs' four-year WCC title streak. It was disappointing to see them then immediately lose as a 5-seed and say goodbye to four players who averaged 5-plus points. The Gaels enter this season unranked, but it would be a great story to see them overcome more obstacles and reach this program's full potential.

The player everyone should be paying a lot more attention to

Medcalf: He played next to Tyler Kolek last season, but Kam Jones was a major contributor to a Marquette squad that made a Sweet 16 run, shooting 41% from 3 last year. And if you're looking for players who accrued momentum late in the season, pay attention to Jones, who made a strong case to be mentioned among the Wooden Award candidates entering the season. Over his final 16 games of 2023-24, Jones averaged 21.4 points.

Borzello: Notre Dame's Markus Burton opened his career with a 29-point outing against Niagara and then entered the ACC as a freshman and averaged 17.5 points and 4.8 assists across 20 games. He had 28 and 8 at Syracuse and went for 31 against Wake Forest. If the Fighting Irish are to take a step forward this season -- and I think they're poised to do so -- Burton will become a national name.

Paine: Houston's J'Wan Roberts didn't get a single vote in the AP's preseason All-America list. And maybe that makes sense, given the sixth-year senior averaged just 9.5 points a year ago. But Roberts has played a key two-way role in Houston's success these past few years. While he isn't a shooter (he has attempted just six career 3-pointers), he contributes in every other way, from efficient offense (the Cougars averaged 121.4 points per 100 possessions when he decided a play) to his defense (he was top 20 in the Big 12 in both steals and blocks per game). According to Sports-Reference's box plus/minus, Roberts had the nation's seventh-highest rating among qualifiers last season.

Lunardi: Neil beat me to it on J'Wan Roberts, so I'll go with 6-10 Johni Broome of Auburn. It says here the Tigers are good enough to win a loaded SEC and, if so, Broome is a realistic Player of the Year candidate both in the conference and nationally. So why stop there? Broome is also my long shot for Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four.

A player with an outside shot to win the Wooden Award

Paine: After a brief dalliance with underclassmen in the late 2010s (Zion Williamson, Obi Toppin), the Wooden Award has returned to favoring upperclassmen. That's why fifth-year Creighton senior Ryan Kalkbrenner might be an underrated choice to watch: He's ranked sixth in the Big East in scoring (17.3 points per game), fifth in rebounding (7.6) and first in blocks (3.1) last season, all while sharing the spotlight with Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander, who poured in more points. Both are now gone, which could open up more offensive opportunities for Kalkbrenner, who is already the conference's three-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

Medcalf: Houston's L.J. Cryer. At Big 12 media day, Kelvin Sampson told me he thought Cryer never felt fully comfortable last year because he was so focused on impressing after transferring from Baylor. Cryer shouldn't feel that pressure anymore. If he becomes the best player on what could be the best team in America, he will certainly make the case for serious consideration for the Wooden Award -- especially if he connects on 39% of his 3-point attempts the way he did last season.

Borzello: I'm cheating, but there are two point guards who could put up big numbers with increased usage this season: Marquette's Kam Jones and Purdue's Braden Smith. Jones averaged 20.8 points and 4.5 assists in six games without Tyler Kolek last season, while Smith will be relied upon much more as a scorer without Zach Edey. He showed he could shoulder more offensive responsibility with 31 points against Creighton in an exhibition game. If either of these teams can hang around the top 10, one of these players should end up as a first-team All-American.

Lunardi: Why is no one talking about Hunter Dickinson at Kansas? Dickinson was on every All-America team this time last year and, if anything, he's on a better, deeper team this season. He would also be the first fifth-year player to win the award.

The one storyline you're watching this season

Borzello: It has to be Cooper Flagg and Duke, right? Flagg is the projected No. 1 draft pick, the player with the most hype entering college in several years, the focal point of a Duke team looking to get to its first Final Four since Mike Krzyzewski retired. Will he live up to the expectations? Can Duke -- which might have two freshmen, Flagg and Kon Knueppel, as its leading scorers -- win with freshmen leading the way? Flagg has consistently lifted up the teammates around him; will that continue in college?

Medcalf: I'd like to see if Alabama will spoil the party. Last season, the Crimson Tide played an NBA style -- they finished 14th in adjusted tempo on KenPom, and 47% of their field goal attempts were 3s -- that can overwhelm opponents. With the addition of Clifford Omoruyi, they should evolve into a more balanced team. They have star power with Mark Sears. They have an entertaining style. They have real Final Four potential. Sorry, Kalen DeBoer. But Alabama might be a basketball school now.

Lunardi: It has not been a great few years for the consensus No. 1 team. A season ago, Kansas was banged up and made "only" the Sweet 16. A season before that, North Carolina didn't even make the tournament. You get the idea. Being the hunted in a sport with so much parity is probably a disadvantage. Yet here again are the Jayhawks, with as much power and pedigree as any program in college basketball. For me, the road to San Antonio begins in Lawrence, Kansas.

Paine: Like most college hoops watchers, I suspect, I want to see what UConn can do for an encore to the encore. Coach Dan Hurley's team went on one of the most impressive runs in men's tournament history in winning the 2023 national title, then followed it up with an even more dominant run to the 2024 championship. The second came without many of the key players who'd fueled the first squad -- and that's something Hurley will have to navigate again this year (among UConn's top five scorers from a year ago, only Alex Karaban returns). But as long as the Huskies have their coach, they have another chance to be great.