Warm Today, Alert Day on Monday

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Our third straight day in the 80s is possible today with continued southwest winds.

Cloudy skies will dominate across the Triangle ahead of the next storm, and with winds shifting southerly later along with increasing moisture can lead to a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon with marginal instability around, but likely most of the area will generally stay dry. Similar to the afternoon, a spotty shower can't be ruled out overnight with any prefrontal trough and surging dew points, but diminishing upper level energy will keep anything that occurs from being thundery for the most part.

Cloudy skies continue tomorrow as the surface low races off northeast with a trailing cold front crossing the Appalachians. Continued southerly flow should enable a high close to 80 for most yet again. While cloud cover may result in some instability concerns, the timing of the front allows for moderate instability. Thunderstorms will be continuing from the overnight further west, but will likely be able to re-intensify before arriving during the late afternoon. Heavier thunderstorms are expected to occur along the front as it restrengthens, capable of damaging winds gusts, flooding downpours, hail and even a tornado.

Showers and thunderstorms may continue through the first part of the overnight before moving offshore, with dry weather and highpressure quickly following into Tuesday. Post front will see highs back to the low 70s, still a few degrees above historical average for this time of year. Drier air will follow as well with a northwesterly wind, leading to dew points back in the 40s for most after having been well into the 60s the day prior.

Wednesday will see the beginning of potentially a long duration dry and warm stretch setting up. Dominant upper-level ridging looks to setup along the East Coast long wave trough lingers over the Southwest.

Highs well into the 80s seem plausible by Thursday into the weekend. There could be some storms around each day with onshore flow and the high moisture, but likely spotty in coverage at best.

By the end of the weekend a good signal for a potent trough to swing south from Canada into the East is displayed on most modeling, indicating an end to the pattern and perhaps another notable cooldown.

Have a great day!
Steve Stewart