Frosty Start, Milder Afternoon

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- With radiational cooling last night, lows this morning will be in the mid 30s for much of the Triangle, and areas east and south of the city are under a frost advisory. High pressure will continue to build to our south, promoting a southwest wind today. This combined with clear skies will provide an excellent end to the weekend, with highs reaching into the mid 60s this afternoon. Warm weather will continue into tomorrow, as a southwest wind continues along with mostly clear skies. Highs will likely be near 70, around 10 degrees above average this time of year. The high to our south will continue shifting east out into the Atlantic, and a weak storm will begin to develop over the southern Great Lakes. This will push eastward during the day Monday, with many of the impacts staying west and north of us. A cold front with this low will eventually make its way eastward across the Appalachians, bringing a few showers very early Tuesday morning into the midday despite being moisture starved. A little discrepancy remains regarding the exact timing of this front, but highs should be able to reach into the upper 60s again Tuesday before the front comes crashing through.

On Wednesday highs will briefly drop to near 60 after the front passes, and cloudy skies are anticipated. Models are coming into a bit more agreement surrounding the Thanksgiving weather, and it continues to look like a good deal of rain and perhaps some thunder can occur throughout the day into the overnight. The Euro is much quicker and more robust with this storm, and leads to a dry Thanksgiving afternoon after rain in the morning. It remains alone in this thinking though as other global models have some precipitation lingering into at least the early parts of the overnight as a cold front pushes through.

In the long term, a substantial cold air intrusion continues to be probable into the weekend as a deep trough develops over the eastern United States. Highs will likely drop post front into the low 50s on Friday for the Triangle, and continue down into the upper 40s for the weekend, more than 10 degrees below average.

Have a great day!

Steve Stewart