2024 Presidential Election | Why NC is so important in the race for 270 electoral votes
RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- As the fallout over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's troubles continues, it could affect the race for the White House in North Carolina.
North Carolina has a history of ticket-splitting. Both times that Republican former President Donald Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, Democrat Roy Cooper also won both of his races for governor on the same ballot.
But the margins matter. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by about 1%, only around 75,000 votes. But on that same ballot, Cooper won by a larger margin over Dan Forest -- around 4.5%, an almost 5% weaker performance in the governor's race than Trump at the top of the ticket. That gap wasn't quite enough to get Joe Biden over the finish line in the Tar Heel State.
This time around, polling suggests a potentially even wider gap.
A new Elon University poll found Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in a virtual 46% to 45% tie in North Carolina. That same poll found Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democrat, opening up a 14% lead over Robinson in the gubernatorial race.
That has Democrats excited to think the potential coattails from Stein could be enough to flip the state blue for Harris. Democrat strategists are trying to tie Trump to Robinson in campaign ads.
On the flip side, many Republicans say they believe that Trump is a unique candidate who can perform well in the state on his own regardless of how Robinson fares.
It all comes at a time when North Carolina could be crucial in both sides' path to 270 electoral votes.
In 2020, Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes, without the help of North Carolina, which went for Trump.
After the Census, Biden's 306 would now become 303 under the new maps. If Kamala Harris were to win all of Biden's states plus North Carolina, that would be a comfortable win with 319 electoral votes.
But for Trump, North Carolina is a must-win. If he holds North Carolina and flips back Georgia and Pennsylvania, that would put him right at the 270 mark, enough to win the election.
And that's where, for Harris, NC can serve as a potential insurance policy. If Trump picks up states in the "blue wall" area of the Rust Belt, such as Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, Harris can make up for that in the Sun Belt by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina in different combinations.
However those map combinations of states play out, North Carolina is at the center of the strategy of both campaigns, and 538 is reporting NC has the potential to be the "tipping point" state that may put either Trump or Harris over 270 votes.
And why both campaigns will make a big push for your vote.
