As list of NC candidates grow for Thom Tillis' senate seat, political analysts offer early insights
RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- The race for North Carolina's pivotal US Senate seat, which will become vacant in 2026, is heating up. Senator Thom Tillis holds the seat currently, but announced at the end of June that he would not seek reelection.
Thursday morning, RNC Chairman and former head of the NCGOP Michael Whatley -- who is originally from Watauga County -- announced he will be running for the seat. In a surprise announcement, Lara Trump -- President Trump's daughter-in-law who had been floated as a possible pick -- said she would not seek the seat in 2026.
That all comes as Roy Cooper plans to make his own announcement over a potential run in the coming days.
Local political experts believe that Whatley's announcement could clear the field on the Republican side, given he's expected to have President Trump's endorsement.
"Whatley's going to have Trump's full support, and how do you win a Republican primary against somebody who's got full Trump's full support," said Steven Greene, a political scientist with NC State.
Greene says Whatley's announcement isn't a surprise, but it does leave some question marks -- especially if Cooper ultimately decides to pursue the seat.
"We know that Ray Cooper is a master at convincing voters. The guy just wins elections. Michael Whatley has never run in an election in his life," Greene said.
According to conservative political analysts, Whatley will be buoyed by President Trump's expected endorsement and his work to help get prominent Republicans elected with the RNC. Winning a US Senate seat in North Carolina, however, may require a specific focus.
"For Republican voters, that's fine," said Mitch Kokai with the Locke Foundation in Raleigh. "For people who don't care about the Republican Party and its inner workings, they're going to say, all right, but what are you going to do as a senator, how's that gonna help me?"
Should Cooper make his run official, Kokai said he expects Whatley's campaign strategy to be to tie the former Governor to national Democratic politics.
"This is what you think about Roy Cooper. Here's the reality. And he'll point out all of the times when Roy Cooper stuck with the Democratic Party's national agenda," Kokai said.
Meantime, prominent North Carolina Democrats are already weighing in on Cooper as a Senate hopeful. ABC11 spoke with Attorney General Jeff Jackson at an event in Orange County on Thursday.
"I haven't spoken to him about this. I've read the reporting that you've all read in the last 24 hours. I have no reason to assume that it's not accurate. But I haven't spoken to him. All I can say is he would be a very strong candidate," Jackson said.
ABC11 reached out several times to Wiley Nickel's campaign, but did not hear back. The former Democratic Congressman has announced his own run for the Senate seat in 2026, but it's unclear whether he would stay in the race if Cooper decides to run. ABC11 also reached out to the RNC with no response.
In a statement on her decision, Lara Trump said:
"I am deeply grateful for the encouragement and support I have received from the people of my home state, whom I love so much. While I am not running in this election, my passion for Making America Great Again burns brightly, and I look forward to the future, wherever that leads."
