Champions Classic: What we learned after Kansas beat Michigan State, Kentucky upset Duke

Though the Champions Classic isn't the official tipoff of the men's college basketball season anymore, it's still the first marquee event -- and it always whets the appetite for Feast Week action in a few weeks. Getting Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan State in the same building for a doubleheader is always intriguing, but the 2024 edition, which took place in Atlanta, has some added pop, especially since the matchup featuring the No. 1 team in the country was considered the undercard.

Top-ranked Kansas took on Michigan State in the first game of the doubleheader, with the Jayhawks coming out at the end of an ugly game with a 77-69 win.

But the story of the night was the nightcap, featuring the big-game debuts for Mark Pope as Kentucky's head coach and Duke's Cooper Flagg as the face of college basketball in 2024-25.Despite the projected No. 1 draft pick's effort (26 points on 9-of-19 shooting, 12 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks), the Blue Devils fell to the Wildcats 77-72.

ESPN college basketball writers Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf and Joe Lunardi, and NBA draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo break down the games and draft prospects from Tuesday night's showdowns.

Kentucky upset Duke. What were the highs and lows of the Wildcats' effort?

For Mark Pope's first four seasons at BYU, 3-point attempts accounted for nearly 40% of shots. Then something changed last season when the Cougars suddenly increased that number to more than 50%. Read: Every other shot in their offense last season was a 3-pointer. But they actually made fewer than 35% of those shots overall.

When he moved to Kentucky, Pope recruited five players who shot at least 37% from 3. That accuracy from the perimeter was the reason Duke and Kentucky were tied 72-72 in the final minute of the game Tuesday. It's also partly why the Wildcats won. Kentucky shot 40% from beyond the arc and kept the game close before multiple clutch plays late. That offensive capability matters. The experience on its roster matters. The toughness on its roster matters. Kentucky challenged Flagg in the second half and forced key turnovers.

There were multiple stretches, however, when Kentucky needed someone who could create a shot. A team that made 40% of its field goal attempts inside the arc will have to identify players who can attack in those challenging moments.

Still, Kentucky proved something Tuesday night: When it plays as a team, it can beat the best squads in the country. And it has made the case it belongs among the early national title contenders. -- Medcalf

How important is Cooper Flagg to this Duke team?

The first half showed the potential balance of this Duke team. Tyrese Proctor started the game with a couple of baskets and had 10 points in the opening half; Kon Knueppel consistently had good looks and was able to finish through contact at the rim; Caleb Foster was distributing effectively; and Khaman Maluach and Sion James were contributing at both ends of the court. Proctor, Knueppel and Flagg combined for 34 points in the first half.

But when it came to crunch time, Duke still turned to its superstar, the projected No. 1 NBA draft pick. Flagg touched the ball on every possession down the stretch, and had the license to get to the rim and either draw a foul or make a play. He had a three-point play to give Duke the lead with 2:01 left, then scored with 1:14 left to tie the score. He also turned it over twice in the final 12 seconds, on back-to-back possessions, when Duke had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. He still finished with 26 points and 12 rebounds, and he never has been one to shy away from the big moment. He'll get more chances -- and Duke will still lean on him late in games. -- Borzello

What will NBA evaluators take away most from Flagg's 26-point game?

This was Flagg's first real test at Duke, and suffice it to say, he passed. But his two biggest mistakes turned out to be pivotal -- he lost a handle on the ball on Duke's final two possessions in a sequence that ultimately determined the result.

Those tough moments underscore the biggest area of growth for Flagg moving forward: his ability to create shots for himself off the dribble. Flagg had some nice baskets operating both facing up and in the post, but he's not an isolation scorer by trade. Duke coach Jon Scheyer opted to challenge him with late-game responsibility, and it didn't work out. As the season rolls on, NBA teams will want to get a better handle on that part of Flagg's projection. Can he become someone teams can play through offensively, on top of all the other things he does?

Flagg was also just 1-of-5 on 3-pointers, another area for improvement. It's important to remember he still only 17 years old, and every game is a learning opportunity. All in all, there wasn't much to nitpick. Flagg's patient all-around game shone through: He took good shots, attacked mismatches and played with poise. His length plays up defensively, allowing him to cover plenty of ground, change opponents' shots and switch everything.

Not every player with a lofty reputation arrives in college exactly as advertised, and we haven't seen many freshmen in recent memory who can match Flagg's level of reliability and mature approach. The nature of this loss might sting momentarily, but there was far more good than bad, especially for his long-term draft outlook. -- Woo

What about Duke's other NBA prospects?

Knueppel isn't going to look back at this game very fondly, needing 20 shots to score his 14 points, and struggling to score in the second half in particular (two points, 1-for-8 from the field). Still, we saw a lot of what NBA scouts are intrigued by: his ability to play pick-and-roll driving, finishing and passing patiently with both hands with excellent timing and smarts. Knueppel also showed his shot-making touch operating in the middle of the lane but was uncharacteristically cold (1-for-8 from 3). Even when his shot wasn't falling, he played with outstanding physicality, getting after players defensively and making winning plays. It's only a matter of time until his game delivers.

Proctor had a great first half but faded into the background in the second, with Flagg and Knueppel handling most of Duke's shot creation. It was good to see him attack aggressively in the open court, seek out open looks, find teammates out of pick-and-roll and come up with defensive stops. The junior guard wasn't able to string together two halves, possibly being gassed playing 36 minutes. This has been somewhat of a theme for him during his Duke career, but it did feel as if he was taking a step forward in his best moments.

Maluach didn't have his best outing but still showed what makes him interesting long term with the impact he made crashing the offensive glass, protecting the rim and rolling to the rim with strong timing out of pick-and-roll. He erased quite a few shots in the lane but also showed a lack of experience at times with late reactions. The freshman center was also somewhat hobbled by a knee injury and cramping. Overall, he had a positive outing considering his youth, and has quite a few more tests in store the next few weeks against some of the best big men in college basketball -- Kansas (Hunter Dickinson), Arizona (Motiejus Krivas) and Auburn (Johni Broome) -- which should teach us quite a bit more about where he stands. -- Givony

Does Kansas still look like the No. 1 team after this win?

The No. 1 conversation is always fluid this early in the season -- it's only the second week and we don't have a lot of data. Tuesday's lackluster effort -- everyone not named Hunter Dickinson finished 6-for-26 in the first half -- had the Jayhawks in a back-and-forth affair with a Michigan State squad at No. 34 in the KenPom rankings entering the game. At one point, the Spartans were shooting at a sub-20% clip. With 8:51 to play, the score was tied 52-52.

In the end, I don't think this game means anything for KU's future. Bill Self has a roster with undeniable depth, which is how the Jayhawks weathered the storm in Atlanta and still left with a win. Their competitors for that top slot also have had tough moments -- or will have upcoming stretches -- that can't really help make their case. UConn won't play a major opponent (Memphis) until Thanksgiving week. Alabama had to overcome a nine-minute scoring drought against McNeese on Monday.

That said, Auburn's win over Houston and bludgeoning of Vermont are compelling. Gonzaga beat Baylor by 38 points. So, the Jayhawks might not have done enough to feel secure in their No. 1 ranking. Are they still the best team in America? They didn't look like it throughout most of the victory over the Spartans, though the effort came days after a thrilling win over a top-10 North Carolina team. But this early in the season, no team has really separated from the pack. -- Medcalf

Michigan State struggled for long stretches but stayed within striking distance of Kansas. What positives can the Spartans take from Tuesday?

The long droughts on the offensive end were obviously concerning, magnified by the fact the Spartans' shooting struggles have been a theme in the early season. They routed Monmouth and Niagara, but shot just 9-for-36 on 3-pointers in both games. Their 3-for-24 3-point performance Tuesday brings those dismal numbers even lower.

But it wasn't all bad. Michigan State's defense is legitimately good. Kansas had its own shooting woes, and some of the credit has to go to the Spartans, who also defended very well in their first two games. Starting 6-foot-11 Xavier Booker and 7-footer Szymon Zapala makes it difficult for opposing guards to finish at the rim, and the perimeter players are aggressive.

Offensively, Jaxon Kohler showed flashes as a go-to low-post operator for the second straight game, and freshman guard Jase Richardson continues to look as if he'll be a factor this season in East Lansing. I don't know if Tuesday materially changed Michigan State's season-long outlook, but hanging with the No. 1 team in the country for 40 minutes provides some optimism for Sparty. -- Borzello

How does Tuesday affect all four teams' paths through the bracket in March?

There's a Bracketology truism that goes something like this: When a team does what it's supposed to, it generally doesn't move much (if at all) in the projected NCAA tournament field. Such was the case in the Champions Classic.

Kansas, currently the No. 1 overall seed, neither blew away nor suffered an upset loss to Michigan State. The Jayhawks thus remain exactly where they started, a sliver ahead of Alabama at the very top of the bracket.

Michigan State came in at No. 24 on the seed list, good for the final 6-seed in the field. Clustered among the likes of Texas A&M (No. 25) and Arkansas (No. 26), the Spartans will slip below each of them and wake up Wednesday as a high 7-seed. Following a pair of guarantee games, their next big test begins Nov. 25 at the Maui Invitational against Colorado.

Duke was the projected fourth No. 1 seed, sitting narrowly between Gonzaga and Auburn for the spot. With the come-from-ahead loss to Kentucky, the Blue Devils have now given up their position on the top line and been leapfrogged by the Tigers. Duke would have to settle for a 2-seed in an updated bracket.

Kentucky went to Atlanta at No. 21 on the seed list, the best of the projected 6-seeds, but can comfortably claim a 5-seed and perhaps even a 4-seed after the first signature win of the Mark Pope era. The Wildcats should be able to coast through four easier games in Lexington before venturing out to Clemson (Dec. 3) and Gonzaga (Dec. 7 in Seattle). -- Lunardi

What does it say about the state of college basketball that this first game doesn't have a projected draft pick?

It's a clear sign of where college basketball is trending, especially in terms of what Hall of Fame coaches such as Izzo and Self think wins games in this era.

Michigan State hasn't had a first-round draft pick since 2018, so it's clear those aren't the type of players Izzo is recruiting anymore. Players such as Richardson could get there, and Booker and Coen Carr could get NBA looks down the road, but unless a team has lottery picks (as Duke does), transfers and upperclassmen are what most college coaches think win games right now, as the results of the past few NCAA tournaments would indicate. That might limit the ceiling of a team such as Michigan State, which has looked pretty stale at times over the past few seasons, but it does give Izzo a pretty consistent floor.

Kansas has taken that veteran mantra to an extreme this season, with three 24-year-old starters and five of its top eight scorers plucked from the portal. The Jayhawks can invest significant resources in top-tier freshmen -- already reeling in 2026 draft potential No. 1 pick Darryn Peterson for 2025-26 -- but if they don't land the cream of the crop, they're more likely to build aroundbackup freshman center Flory Bidunga.

The rest of college basketball, with few exceptions, would love to emulate that type of roster construction. -- Givony

How valuable is the Champions Classic for draft prospects?

There is no catch-all answer here. Sometimes these games have a major effect on propelling a player's draft stock (think Duke star Zion Williamson's coming-out party in 2018) and sometimes they don't (players such as Kentucky's Tyrese Maxey in 2020 and Duke's Grayson Allen in 2018 played well, but each fell out of the top 20 on their respective draft nights). Quentin Grimes broke out on the Champions Classic stage as a freshman for Kansas but needed to stay in college for four seasons and eventually transferred to Houston before becoming a first-round pick in 2021.

If nothing else, the Champions Classic can shape the narrative around a prospect. Though smart NBA front offices will always want to limit the impact of recency bias, there's often an anchoring effect around early-season play in particular that keeps players in the draft conversation through the spring.

Still, as much as we want to trust our eyes and put weight on big games like these, history has shown time and again that a single showing hardly defines a player's season, and more importantly, his draft outlook. For example, NBA teams have had four years to evaluate Dickinson and understand his strengths and weaknesses as a future NBA player. A productive night (28 points, 12 rebounds and 3 steals), while typical for him, probably doesn't move the needle one way or the other. -- Woo