The models are still consistent with there being low instability in Raleigh itself so the threat for thunder there remains low but not zero. It does however look like some gusty thunderstorms will kick up farther east, just inland of the coast in the late afternoon after the diurnal heating and there is a category 1 risk of severe storms down toward the coastal plain.
High pressure settles over the Triangle Saturday after the front moves offshore. The weekend looks pleasant, with mild days and seasonably cool nights. It will be great weather to cap off the state fair!
The latest medium-range guidance for early next week seems consistent between models in showing high pressure farther north across eastern Canada compared to early yesterday. This translates into less of a risk for high pressure at the surface getting wedged into the middle Atlantic region. The latest trends are showing low pressure being pushed beneath the high moving a bit faster. For this reason we will continue to mention the chance of a shower on Tuesday, but it seems like precipitation could get into the area Monday night. It does look like this could be relatively heavy at times.
Have a great evening!