RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- We will remain on the fringes of an active pattern, with a cold front leaving temperatures below the historical average to end the weekend. For today, we're seeing areas of high clouds to the south and even some patchy fog fading in and out of existence in spots.
The overall forecast remains the same, as a stubborn surface low continues to influence our pattern and the upper feature swings a bit more energy through the area. That, combined with north-northeasterly flow, has led to a tweak to the forecast for wording today, with modeling supporting more of a drizzle output through the day around the Triangle and organized showers more likely closer to the shore.
Friday's shower coverage looks less expansive than for today but a shower continues to be possible as the pattern holds. The upper energy is generally trending southward in modeling, though, and we'll maintain low chances.
Saturday brings a backdoor front through the area toward evening. If this front continues to trend faster, we could see the American model solution play out with showers arriving by the end of the day. Strangely, the EURO and Canadian are mostly dry; this solution seems unlikely as a cold front slams into upper-80s heat and lower-60s dew points.
Beyond that, Sunday brings significant cooling into the mid-70s, well below our historical averages in the mid-80s, as the most significant moisture from what will end up being two separate storms over the water likely stays offshore.
We continue to watch an area across the southwestern Atlantic and the eastern Gulf of Mexico for tropical development through the weekend. A disturbance across the area has the potential to become better organized as it tracks from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic. Regardless of tropical status, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will be possible across Florida from Thursday to Saturday which could lead to flash flooding as this feature crosses the state.
Have a good day!