RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Similarly to the last few days, heat and humidity will remain high this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s and dew points in the 70s. This will allow storms to fire up in a couple of spots this afternoon before quickly diminishing this evening. There may be a heavier downpour in any storm, leading to brief ponding on roads and low-lying areas as PWATs near the 2 inch mark this afternoon. However, flow aloft keeps things moving, so prolonged downpours and widespread flooding, are not expected.
A cold front pressing near the region from northern Virginia tomorrow will be the start of a pattern change. Out ahead of the front, moisture will deepen across our region. The highest chance for a thunderstorm will be across northern and northwestern parts of the area, where storms can move into the region later in the day as they track southeast; these would arrive later in the day and then can track deeper into the region early tomorrow night before the storms diminish.
With PWATs remaining at 2+ inches and adequate forcing in place thanks to the front, Thursday looks to be most active. As the front arrives in the region, we can expect to see more widespread showers and thunderstorms that have some intense downpours at times. There will be a risk for flooding, especially low-lying and poor drainage areas. Additionally, we expect some thunderstorms to contain gusty winds.
Despite the noticeable drop in temperature, humidity will remain high with the influx of moisture still in the area. A secondary cold front looks to trail the primary cold front on Friday, and will bring a risk for additional convection. However, this shouldn't be as widespread as on Thursday as even though there is good energy aloft with the arrival of a deep trough. Moisture levels drop considerably with this secondary front, allowing for a slight drop in humidity Friday.
The passage of this second front will be the deliverer of a much more pleasant air mass with lower humidity for Saturday and Sunday! Dew points are forecast to drop into the 50s with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. This is thanks to an area of high pressure that will move in behind the front, sinking down through Virginia on Saturday and then holding on through Sunday. We do have to watch for a potential weak upper disturbance to swing through the flow on Sunday; some modeling wants to bring in a round of clouds and perhaps even localized thunderstorm activity with this. We aren't putting this into the forecast yet, but will keep an eye on it.
By early next week, we'll start to see the flow turn back to being more off of the Atlantic as the high falls apart; this will start to raise the temperature and the dew point once again. Any rain chances hold off until Tuesday though.
Have a great evening!
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