A Sunny Weekend

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- The breezy conditions will subside by this evening, but temperatures are not expected to drop towards freezing late tonight. The weekend will begin to trend much more pleasant, with the Upper Level Low to our north moving off to the east in the Atlantic, and ridging causing heights aloft to rise. Surface high pressure will build over the Southeast, and originally northwesterly winds will begin to back southwesterly by Sunday as the high shifts further east. Combined with sunny skies, high temperatures will return to slightly above historical average in the low 60s this weekend.

With light winds Saturday night, temperatures are expected to drop to the low 30s outside of RDU, especially south and east of the city, leading to another frost threat for these locations.

Beginning next week, some model discrepancy still remains for Monday night and the later week. A low pressure system looks to develop on Monday somewhere in the Ohio Valley and push east, bringing an attendant cold front with it. After highs reach near 70 on Monday with continued SW flow, this front looks to push through locally sometime Tuesday. The EURO suggests this will bring a shower or two to the Triangle overnight Monday with the faster front, but other models suggest only areas close to the mountains in the western portions of the viewing area will see anything. The timing of this front will heavily dictate how warm we can get on Tuesday, as a quicker front will likely lead to a cooler day, but a slower front could see continued warmth into the upper 60s before finally cooling off Wednesday.

By the midweek, highs will drop on Wednesday after FROPA into the mid 50s. For Thanksgiving, models have come into more agreement about rain chances, and we have added an afternoon shower for the holiday. This could continue to trend slower, and a rather wet Thanksgiving may become more plausible as we move closer to Thursday. Otherwise, highs look to remain near historical average at around 60, but some weak instability may develop ahead of this precipitation, leading to a few rumbles of thunder towards the overnight and evening on Thursday.

In the long term, the weather pattern will be largely dictated by a potential storm in the Northeast that models are still trying to get a handle on, and much uncertainty remains. Still, a recurring signal for a noticeably cool airmass at the end of the month to begin pushing southwards is worth watching.

Have a great weekend and see you at the Raleigh Christmas Parade!

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