RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- With the Bermuda high in place, the flow over the Southeast will stay pretty weak today. We do have a weak disturbance that is swinging by the area this morning that may touch off a stray shower. Most of the activity though will be driven by the heating of the day. We still have plenty of moisture in place with moderate instability. This should be enough to trigger spotty activity during the afternoon and evening.
A cold front will push into the Northeast tomorrow and then slowly slip southward through the mid-Atlantic tomorrow night. This will then stall over the area into Saturday with an area of high pressure building eastward across New England. This will enhance the moisture flow into the area and increase our t-storm potential. Model guidance is suggesting that PWAT values will top 2 starting late tomorrow and then remain high into the weekend. With these higher-than-normal values, we could see flooding downpours accompanying storms, increasing the flooding chance for late in the week.
The weather picture becomes more unclear later in the weekend. The American Model and European both bring a trough through the Great Lakes and into New England from Sunday into early next week, with a cold front pushing into the eastern Tennessee Valley by the end of Monday. The arrival of this system may help to clear out the old frontal boundary with a faster flow aloft. However, another disturbance tracking farther south could serve to enhance precipitation along its track; the European is stronger with this feature.
At this point, it would likely near the Triangle later Monday, so this could argue a wetter start to next week. For now we'll trend down the precipitation chances and allow temperatures to creep back up a bit, but this may change over the coming days.
Have a great Tuesday!
Scattered afternoon and evening storms around on Tuesday
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