Scattered Afternoon and Evening Storms

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- The weather across the Triangle is going to take a turn for the wetter.

We'll see a front pushing into Virginia today, then stalling out near us tonight; this will linger into the weekend. In addition, with the Bermuda high in place to the east and a broad weakness/upper-level trough slowly approaching from the Mississippi Valley, we will see an increase in moisture over the region in the coming days.

Because of this, there is potential for heavy rainfall with any shower or thunderstorm that comes through, beginning this afternoon.

The highest risk for that will be tomorrow and Friday when the influx of moisture reaches its peak and forcing is at its greatest. A potential limiting factor would be less instability with extensive cloud cover...but any breaks of sunshine may create enough instability to allow storms to be heavier. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall, we're also seeing a lack of good steering flow; storms are already moving very slowly through Virginia and western North Carolina now. That flow doesn't pick up a great deal as we head through the end of the week.

Model guidance differs some this weekend, as the American still develops a surface low over North Carolina that pushes eastward as the upper-level trough swings into the Carolinas. This would drag the cold front eastward with somewhat drier air filtering in aloft, lowering the heavy rain potential some, especially for Sunday. The latest European model keeps a more well-defined mid-level Low lingering to the west, and while a weak surface low does develop to the east, it doesn't drag the front through the region. Given these differences, we're not going to forecast heavy rainfall, but it certainly is worth a continued mention.

The American is quicker to take this front east of us early next week than it was yesterday, though the European still holds that front back a bit, and doesn't move it to the east until Monday night. Because of this difference, we'll continue to keep a shower or thunderstorm in the forecast with more cloudiness. There is also a difference in the timing of the next upper-level trough. The American is faster with it, and brings it in Tuesday, while the Euro is slower and weaker. We'll keep the idea of the slower timing for now, but that will need to be watched in the coming days.

Have a great Hump Day!

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