Spring Sticks Around

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Clouds will decrease tonight , allowing for enough radiational cooling to bring another chillier night tonight - but the low temperature will still be above the historical average low for this time of year.

Brief ridging will be around for tomorrow afternoon and night, keeping our dry streak going. High temperatures will continue to reach into the upper 70s and near 80 into Saturday before the arrival of the next potent, and incredibly dynamic, system for the latter half of the weekend.

An intense low pressure area will develop over the central Plains and track northeastward into the Upper Midwest this weekend, while a second low will develop over the Mississippi Valley and track into the Ohio Valley. As the pressure gradient tightens with these two lows tracking generally northeastward, breezy conditions are expected to develop Friday
night and last through Sunday. There can be some showers on Saturday in the warm sector ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, but shower chances will generally remain to the west and the southeast. Sunday will be the day to watch in terms of potentially dangerous weather for the region.

Rain and storms will likely begin Sunday morning amid FROPA and will push across the area. Ahead of the front, PWATs are forecasted to be in excess of 1.5", and could even approach near 2". These are anomolously high PWAT values for this time of year, and could present the potential for some flooding with any heavy downpours that occur within stronger storms. Instability continues to look pretty marginal as far north as RDU, but there will still be some MUCAPE around. Given some instability and the proximity of a prominent low level jet and resulting shear, there can be some severe weather. At this time, the severe threat looks like it will stem from more of a QLCS-style system, with the potential for the deeper convective portions of the line to mix down gusty winds. There may also be some risk for some brief spin-ups around but that portion of the forecast would need to be watched in the coming days.

Models still suggest this line will be pushing off the coast by Monday morning, leaving the Triangle dry to start the new work week

Have a great evening!

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