Officials expect Florida's coastline to change amid Hurricane Milton

Florida's 825-miles of sandy beaches have been devoured by hurricanes year after year. As Hurricane Milton barrels toward Tampa and the Gulf Coast, piling onto the damage from Hurricane Helene, officials warn of "severe" levels of coastal change.

"The significance of the coastal change forecast for Milton's impact to the Florida west coast cannot be overstated as I believe communities are more vulnerable to this storm's impacts due to the erosion that occurred recently from Helene," Kara Doran, a United States Geological Survey supervisory physical scientist who works on the coastal change forecast, said in a Monday post on the agency's website.

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Most of the state's west coast experienced overwash or inundation and complete erosion of dunes as a result of September's Hurricane Helene, leaving coastal communities with less protection than before, according to Doran.

Milton's waves and storm surge could cause 100% of all ocean-facing beaches to experience erosion and overwash, the USGS estimated.

In recent years, hundreds of miles of the state's shoreline have become critically eroded or changed to "such a degree that upland development, recreational interests, wildlife habitat, or important cultural resources are threatened or lost," according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

Hurricane Milton will join a long list of damaging storms that have altered Florida's shorelines along the panhandle, according to the USGS -- including Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Michael.

For example, large waves sparked by Hurricane Nicole in 2022 caused damage to over a dozen coastal structures in Flagler and Volusia Counties, causing a state road to collapse in some parts and completely flood in others.

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Intense storms reshape the coastal landscape when they cause large waves or storm surges that erode the beach and dune system, the USGS noted. On top of this, the rise in sea level, coastal development and the construction of navigation channels and inlets, have exacerbated the issue.

The Florida Climate Center reports that sea levels across the state are about 8 inches higher than they were in 1950, and the rate of sea level rise is rapidly accelerating.

Extensive erosion has resulted in hazards to shorelines that include densely populated regions, putting "critical infrastructure at risk to future flooding and erosion and may cause economic losses," according to the USGS.