A Cold November Rain

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Expect mainly clear skies early tonight, then clouds will roll in after midnight as a cold front now over the Mississippi Valley moves east into the Appalachians. Rains with this front will reach the Carolina mountains later tonight, the Triad by midday and the Triangle during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Modeling has increased rainfall with this front tomorrow as a surface wave (triple point) forms along the front over southeast North Carolina during the late afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range seems likely with some areas picking up over 1.25 inches. Given the drought we are in, this rainfall will be most welcome.

Cloud cover and rain tomorrow will keep high temps in the middle 50s at best. Rains should taper off and end from west to east later tomorrow night with Friday likely to turn out partly sunny. An exception will be coastal areas which have lingering cloud cover and a bit of rain Friday morning.

The air mass following the rain is quite mild, so with the return of sunshine this weekend, afternoon highs will reach the middle and upper 60s Saturday and Sunday and are likely to climb to the low and middle 70s Monday and Tuesday.

The next chance for rain will be in the form of a few showers later Wednesday or Wednesday night. Much colder air building over the Midwest the middle part of next week will spill over the Appalachians and into the Carolinas the second half of next week. As this cold air mass settles in late next week, it would appear the Triangle is likely to see its first widespread frost of the season.

Tropical Discussion: Showers and thunderstorms are increasing over the north central Caribbean this afternoon with a circulation starting to take shape. Tropical Storm Sara is likely to form in the west central Caribbean tomorrow and will likely be a Hurricane by Friday. Conditions are conducive for Sara to become a major hurricane before passing near or reaching the Yucatan Peninsula late this weekend into early next week. latest model runs are farther south and west, so it will spend more time than previously expected over Central America, weakening Sara more than originally though. After that, a turn to the northeast towards Florida is still on the table for the early and middle part of next week.

Have a great evening!

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