The university's Tropical Weather & Climate Research team issues hurricane forecasts every year and updates them as more information becomes available. This year the group initially predicted an above-average season with 16 named storms. That forecast now calls for 20 named storms (including the 5 that have already formed), 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.
Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2020
continues call for very active 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season. New forecast calls for 20 named storms (including the 5 that have already formed), 9 hurricanes and 4 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes. https://t.co/wIVwJdWMcO pic.twitter.com/OYOMcIIBDz
This updated forecast is based on a statistical model that takes in data from past hurricane seasons. Current environmental conditions are also conducive for tropical development.
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Most of the eastern Atlantic is warmer than normal, and warmer temperatures are associated with more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Warm ocean temperatures are the main fuel for tropical systems.
Also, weak La Nina conditions could form later this Summer through the Fall. A Colorado State meteorologist said in a tweet that eastern Pacific temperatures remain cooler that normal limiting wind shear. Wind shear often limits tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center is also forecasting an above-average hurricane season.
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So far we've had 5 named storms in the Atlantic. Two storms formed for before May, the official start of hurricane season. The latest storm Edouard set the record to the 5th earliest named storm.
Keep in mind it only takes one storm to make it an active season for your location. So people need to keep their guard up even if a below-average season is predicted.
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